Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Ethan (@ethanzhangweb3)_
Following the U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear facilities yesterday and Israel's continued airstrikes, the geopolitical storm is stirring the financial markets.
This morning, U.S. President Trump made controversial remarks on Truth Social: “If the current Iranian regime cannot make the country great again, why can't there be a regime change?” He even shouted the political slogan “MIGA” (Make Iran Great Again). This statement quickly spread and was widely interpreted as “potentially laying the groundwork for further escalation of geopolitical conflict.”
Cryptocurrency prices have fallen again. According to OKX market data, this morning BTC briefly fell below 99,000 USD, hitting a low of 98,188 USD, marking a new low since May 12, with a 24-hour drop exceeding 4.4%. As of the time of writing, BTC's price has rebounded to 101,014 USD, with a daily increase of 0.67%. ETH dropped to 2,111 USD today, with a maximum 24-hour drop of over 10%, and has now rebounded to 2,232 USD.
In the derivatives market, Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the network reached 634 million USD, with BTC liquidations at 231 million USD and ETH liquidations at 189 million USD, mostly from long positions, indicating significant leverage cleansing.
Meanwhile, the "Fear and Greed Index" displayed by Alternative.me has dropped from 42 (fear) yesterday to 47 (neutral), indicating a slight recovery in sentiment.
Market Outlook Collection: The Bull-Bear Game on the Edge of the Storm
Santiment: Bombing events indicate further deterioration of the situation, Bitcoin's price stability may be due to it being the U.S. weekend night
Cryptocurrency market analysis firm Santiment posted on X platform that the bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities by U.S. forces on the 22nd marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran that has lasted over a week. In the U.S., Democratic Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez from New York has called for impeachment proceedings against Trump, while supporters argue that this move is crucial to curbing Iran's nuclear capabilities. Global leaders and analysts warn that Iran may retaliate through cyberattacks, armed proxy assaults, or by cutting off oil transport routes. Currently, about 40,000 U.S. troops are stationed in the region, and as Trump himself threatens to use "more powerful force" in response to retaliation, the situation may further deteriorate.
According to Santiment's social metrics, mentions of the keyword "Iran" surged immediately after the news broke. Bitcoin's price surprisingly remained stable, but this may be due to the event occurring during the weekend night (U.S. time). Such geopolitical crises typically lead to market volatility as investors assess the risks of war escalation.
Arthur Hayes: The weakness in the crypto market will eventually pass, Bitcoin's safe-haven property will be recognized
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated on X platform today that the current weakness in the market is only a temporary phenomenon. As central banks around the world continue to expand money supply under the guise of "national interest," the value of Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset will become increasingly apparent, and its status will ultimately be widely recognized by the market.
CryptoQuant: Bitcoin demand is slowing down, potential support area around 92,000 USD
CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno indicated that Bitcoin demand is showing signs of cooling after a period of accelerated growth, with prices nearing 112,000 USD. While spot demand continues to grow, the growth rate has slowed and is currently below historical trends. The purchasing volume of Bitcoin by whales and ETFs has halved. The demand from new investors is also declining. In the futures market, investors have recently chosen to take profits and begin establishing new short positions. If demand continues to weaken, Bitcoin may find support around 92,000 USD, which corresponds to the on-chain actual cost price for traders, a typical support area during a bull market. If this support fails, the next support level may be at 81,000 USD, close to the lower bound of the on-chain actual cost price for traders.
James Wynn: Increase short positions, BTC short-term target 93,000 to 95,000 USD
James Wynn posted on X platform that he has "increased his short position" and set Bitcoin's short-term target price at 93,000 to 95,000 USD. He pointed out that against the backdrop of more countries potentially joining the conflict, the market has not fully reflected the real risks. Additionally, there are no expectations for interest rate cuts in the U.S., and the so-called bullish logic relies solely on global liquidity expansion, which does not stem from the dollar system.
He further proposed a conspiracy theory, believing that the U.S. government may wish to force Bitcoin to drop through some "black swan event," thereby creating an opportunity for itself to build positions at lower levels.
Konstantins Vasilenko: MiCA framework boosts growth in the European crypto market, while U.S. retail trading cools
According to data from Paybis co-founder Konstantins Vasilenko, trading volume from EU customers increased by 70% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2025 after the MiCA regulations came into effect. In contrast, retail trading activity in the U.S. market has shown a declining trend during the same period. Kaiko estimates that currently only 18% of Coinbase's spot trading volume comes from retail investors, down from 40% in 2021. Robinhood's crypto trading volume also fell by 35% in the first quarter of 2025.
Vasilenko stated that MiCA will open its licensing window on January 1, 2025, with a larger and more targeted influx of new funds. The MiCA framework introduces a single licensing system for all EU member states and imposes strict regulations on stablecoins, requiring 1:1 reserves, audits, and asset segregation, thereby enhancing investor confidence.
In contrast, ongoing regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. hinders market development. Although President Trump and his administration members have made supportive statements about cryptocurrencies, comprehensive federal crypto legislation has yet to be enacted.
Conclusion: The market is pricing the "breadth of war"
The market fluctuations amid the geopolitical storm are no longer just a digital game but a collective vote on the "global risk attitude." Trump's call for "MIGA" has turned the Iran issue from merely a military conflict into a political mobilization; meanwhile, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have become liquidity regulators and vehicles for capital games amid this round of intense turbulence.
From liquidation data to on-chain bottom fishing, from short positioning to technical support, what the market is pricing is not whether war will break out, but whether it will escalate, and whether the "policy bull market" has truly come to an end.
Moving forward, if BTC holds the support range of 98,000 to 101,000, and ETH continues to attract institutional accumulation, the crypto market may enter a recovery period after a "structural washout" amid high volatility. However, if geopolitical risks continue to spill over and the Federal Reserve signals less dovishness, it could mark the beginning of a new round of liquidity withdrawal.
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