In the midst of strategizing, we decide the outcome from a thousand miles away. Hello everyone, I am Lin Chao, a global financial market observer, focusing on cryptocurrency market analysis, bringing you the most in-depth trading information analysis and technical teaching.

Recently, Lin Chao has written a lot about basic technical analysis, and many fans have privately messaged him asking how to read candlesticks and how to find entry points, seemingly obsessed with technical parameters. Lin Chao wants to remind everyone not to lose sight of the main point. Candlesticks and technical patterns are merely aids; the judgment of direction and understanding of fundamentals are the most crucial aspects in this market. No matter how powerful the technology, if the direction is wrong, one will miss out on significant market movements. In terms of short-term market trends, the biggest influence should be the confirmation of when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, but Lin Chao believes this will not happen anytime soon. Today, he will provide a detailed analysis of the fundamental reasons behind this.

The Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy report released to Congress on Friday stated that the U.S. inflation rate has risen, and the labor market remains robust, but it hinted that the impact of Trump's tariff measures may just be beginning to show, reiterating the Fed's view that it can wait for clearer conditions before taking action. The Fed stated in the report: "The impact of this year's increased import tariffs on U.S. consumer prices is highly uncertain, as trade policies continue to evolve, and it is still too early to assess how consumers and businesses will respond. Although the effects of tariffs cannot be directly observed from official consumer price statistics, the net price change patterns of various goods this year suggest that tariffs may be one of the reasons for the recent rebound in goods inflation." The report also noted that despite the uncertainties, the financial system has remained "resilient."

Trump's complaints about Powell have been quite direct, saying "the rate cut is too late" and "utterly incompetent," even suggesting replacing Powell. Outsiders may see it as a spectacle, but insiders understand the nuances. The conflicts between Trump and Powell may not be as severe as they appear. In Lin Chao's view, it is at most a war of words, and there is even a hint of Trump putting on a show. Historically, the White House and the Federal Reserve have been engaged in a power struggle, and many people are unaware of the logic behind it.

Since its establishment in 1913, the Federal Reserve has never been a puppet of the White House or the Treasury Department; to some extent, it even has an adversarial relationship. Simply put, the Federal Reserve acts as a balancing threshold between the market and the White House, preventing the president's overly loose economic policies from affecting the market, leading to dollar depreciation and inflation, while also not completely ignoring the White House's stance. It must both restrict and cooperate. During a president's term, the key assessment requirement is the political achievements brought about by economic growth, which in turn boosts public opinion and votes. However, whether it is government debt or the debt of large corporations, it is fundamentally based on the influence of the dollar on the global market. Therefore, one of the Federal Reserve's most basic functions is to ensure the stability of the dollar's position in the international market, which means that the Federal Reserve's economic considerations are more macro than those of the president. It is also important to note that the Fed's decisions are not made solely by Powell; the Fed has 12 voting seats, and Powell only has one twelfth of the decision-making power. So no matter how much Trump shouts from afar, he cannot fully influence the Fed's decisions, let alone replace Powell.

Based on the above viewpoints, one can understand that although Trump is urgently calling for "interest rates to be cut to 1%-2%": a rate cut can temporarily stimulate the stock market and lower credit costs, creating "economic prosperity." However, blind rate cuts may lead to: rising unemployment rates, rising inflation rates, and a decline in the dollar's global status. Since Trump took office, actions such as increasing tariffs have indeed shaken market confidence in the dollar, and other countries have been somewhat moving towards de-dollarization. The impact and response of Trump's new policies on the market cannot be fully reflected in the current data statistics, whether in terms of inflation rates or unemployment rates, which are still at the levels of the previous cycle. Therefore, Powell's view is: let the bullets fly for a while, and further observation is needed. This is also why Lin Chao believes that the earliest rate cut will be in August, but it is more likely to be after September.

With the current U.S. interest rate at 5.5%, borrowing is expensive, and saving is attractive, making large funds hesitant to move. If it really drops to 1%-2%: borrowing costs would plummet! Bank interest would be nearly negligible, and massive amounts of dollars would frantically seek high-yield opportunities, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other crypto assets acting as super reservoirs, which would truly kick off a new bull market cycle. From past examples, we can see that when the Fed cut rates to 0 in 2020, Bitcoin subsequently soared from $7,000 to $69,000! Rising tides lift all boats; that is the hard truth.

So, as you can see, the recent performance of the crypto sector has been lukewarm, precisely because the main core policies have not been announced. Although Trump is vocally aggressive, the market stimulus will not have a significant effect. Lin Chao believes that a bull market is inevitable; it will just occur in the second half of the year, and this quarter is actually to create space for a rise at the end of the year. The downward trend from June to September is an inevitable trend.

From the market trend, we can also see that there has been buying support near the first support level multiple times, but we can also observe that the trading volume is gradually decreasing. If negative fundamental news arises, it could break through the support level at any time. Lin Chao reminds everyone that contract users should not operate during the trading session; only when reaching support and assistance levels is there greater operational space, and the margin for error will be higher.

At the same time, Lin Chao also observed on-chain data and found that in the past few months, miners' transaction fee income has significantly decreased, averaging only $558,000 per day last month. This low fee pressure indicates a significant decline in demand for block space, which sends a similar signal to the overall decrease in trading volume. Although Bitcoin's price is currently stable in a higher range, there is a clear divergence between market valuation and network activity, with transaction numbers still unusually low and non-token transactions plummeting. In simple terms, the decline in throughput has led to a significant drop in miners' fee income, which sharply contrasts with previous bull market cycles. Users holding long positions in contracts can appropriately reduce their positions to control risk.

Of course, for long-term users, this period is a relatively good stage for positioning. Lin Chao himself will be placing a large number of pending orders from June to September, waiting for the right opportunity. If anyone is unsure about the timing of entry, feel free to message Lin Chao, and he will respond upon seeing it. Additionally, if the fluctuation period can be sustained regularly, contract users can also use this cycle to bolster their capital reserves.

We must always maintain sensitivity to information to make appropriate decisions at the right time; riding the wind is the only opportunity for ordinary people. The biggest prison in the world is the human mindset; if you cannot earn money beyond your cognition, then learn to leverage.

The global market is ever-changing, and the world is a whole. Follow Lin Chao to gain a top-tier global financial perspective.

For real-time information, please follow the public account: Lin Chao on Cryptocurrency.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。