This week, the Middle East saw a sudden escalation in tensions, sending shockwaves through the crypto market.
On June 13, Israel launched strikes on multiple Iranian military and nuclear facilities, triggering a retaliatory missile response from Iran. Panic quickly spread across global markets. Bitcoin (BTC) fell over 4% in a single day, while Ethereum (ETH) plunged up to 8%. More than $1 billion in crypto long positions were liquidated across the market.
Although tensions appeared to ease slightly on June 16, a new shock arrived on June 18 when Iran’s largest crypto exchange, Nobitex, suffered a massive cyberattack. This incident shifted focus to a new battlefield: the blockchain itself.
Impact of the Conflict on Crypto Market Trends
1. Sharp Sell-Off (June 13–14):News of Israel’s military actions triggered a global risk-off move. The crypto market experienced a swift and heavy sell-off:
2. Brief Rebound (June 16):Signs of potential de-escalation surfaced as reports suggested Iran was open to dialogue. Risk appetite returned to global markets—U.S. stocks and the FTSE rebounded, oil prices retreated 3%, and crypto followed suit with a modest bounce, led by Bitcoin.
3. Renewed Volatility and Cyberattack (June 18):The destructive hack of Nobitex drew widespread attention, raising concerns about a new "on-chain warfare" phase. Bitcoin stabilized within a narrow $104,500–$105,000 range but remained under pressure. Smaller altcoins stayed especially vulnerable due to lingering risk-off sentiment.
Looking Back: What History Tells Us About Crypto in Wartime
In recent years, geopolitical conflicts have repeatedly tested Bitcoin’s credentials as a safe-haven asset. While history may not repeat exactly, its echoes often guide investors in navigating volatility.
The Russia–Ukraine War (February 2022):
On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The crypto market was hit hard. Bitcoin fell from $39,000 to $34,000—a nearly 13% drop in a single day. Ethereum, Solana, and other major altcoins plunged in tandem as investors flocked to traditional safe-havens like gold and the U.S. dollar.
But the narrative shifted rapidly. Western nations imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia, freezing central bank reserves and removing key banks from the SWIFT system. Ukraine, in a bold move, published crypto wallet addresses for donations. The global crypto community responded swiftly. By the end of February, Ukraine had received over $50 million in digital assets, surpassing $100 million days later.
This sparked a reversal. From February 26–28, Bitcoin rebounded back above $39,000. Investors began reevaluating crypto’s utility in crises—particularly decentralized assets as tools for borderless aid and monetary resilience. The crypto community’s on-chain mobilization boosted short-term market confidence.
In early March, Ukraine even used crypto to procure military supplies like drones and bulletproof vests. Meanwhile, Russian citizens turned to crypto amid currency instability and withdrawal limits, pushing up P2P prices for Tether (USDT) paired with the ruble. Crypto was evolving into a parallel financial system on both sides of the war.
As U.S. regulators stepped in, platforms like Coinbase and Binance began blocking sanctioned Russian accounts. Market volatility persisted, but Bitcoin largely stabilized between $38,000 and $42,000 in early March.
By April, as the war became protracted, crypto markets began showing reduced sensitivity to war headlines. Still, key wartime use cases—such as fundraising, sanctions evasion, and financial decoupling—kept crypto in global policy and media spotlights. On-chain activity and cross-border movement became closely watched metrics.
The Israel–Hamas Conflict (October 2023):
When Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel in October 2023, Bitcoin fell sharply below $28,000. Ethereum lost over 3% the same day.
Once again, Bitcoin initially failed to mirror gold’s safe-haven surge. However, as the conflict evolved and global capital flows rebalanced, BTC’s identity as a "non-sovereign asset" gained traction. Within a week, crypto rebounded—demonstrating high sensitivity to geopolitics and a capacity to adapt to shifting liquidity dynamics.
The episode also reinforced a familiar three-phase cycle:Wartime Volatility → Risk Narrative Reset → On-Chain Behavior Surveillance.This pattern reminded markets that Bitcoin might still play an unconventional role as a crisis hedge—though not always in expected ways.
War and the Crypto Dilemma: Safe-Haven Asset or Strategic Tool?
Today’s crypto market is undergoing a unique wartime stress test. From Ukraine to Gaza to Tehran, each geopolitical flashpoint is reshaping how investors perceive the risk profile of decentralized digital assets.
As safe-haven logic collides with smart-contract vulnerabilities, and price movements misalign with real-world events, the market is seeking new reference points. Historical performance may not offer clear predictions—but it provides essential rhythm and insight into how capital behaves under pressure.
In this climate of uncertainty, investors may find more value in watching the timing of market reactions, capital migration patterns, and on-chain signals, rather than focusing on price alone.
Under the shadow of war, crypto assets are being asked a critical question:Are they truly risk assets—or the new wartime currency of choice?
原文: 《 Crypto Market Under the Trial of War: What Does Historical Performance Reveal? 》
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