📌 Macroeconomic Heavy Strike:

1️⃣ The Fed's Hawkish Stance Returns, Dot Plot Indicates Only One Rate Cut This Year! Powell's press conference signaled a "longer period of maintaining high interest rates," cooling the crypto market and rapidly increasing cautious sentiment among investors. (See detailed interpretation in the attached image)

2

️⃣ Middle East Situation Escalates Dramatically! The proxy conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated to a "nuclear deterrence" status. Although a comprehensive regional war has not erupted, a "high-pressure hybrid warfare" pattern is taking shape, and international oil prices and risk-averse sentiment will continue to ferment, potentially impacting global risk asset trends.

📉 BTC Trend Analysis:

• Daily Structure: Continuously probing the 103500 support area, although there have been multiple rebounds, the highs are gradually declining, and the downward trend remains unchanged. The 103000 level serves as a market sentiment dividing line; if it breaks, the next support looks towards 95000.

• 4-Hour Chart: Consolidating between 1055-1035, with extremely low trading volume indicating increased market caution, waiting for a directional breakout. A significant breakdown or breakout will initiate a new trend.

  

🎯 Operational Suggestions:
Upper Resistance: 1055–1065
Lower Support: 1035–1025
Direction choice is approaching, waiting for an explosion!

📉 ETH Strategy Analysis:

• The price is currently retracing to repair the "technical gap" left by the sharp rise in May, currently holding above the 2480 key support level. If it can break above 2650-2680 with increased volume, it is expected to initiate a new round of upward momentum, challenging the 3050 high.

• If it falls below 2480 with increased volume, it may trigger a deep adjustment, with support looking at the 2310-2280 range.

  

🎯 Operational Focus:
Upper Resistance: 2540–2570
Lower Support: 2480–2450
A volume-reduced rebound does not change the oscillating pattern; remain cautious of false breakouts!

📊 Altcoins: Is the Rebound an Illusion? Let's Break It Down:

✅ Four Major Criteria to Determine a True Rebound:

1. Sector rotation starts, leading coins break through key levels first;

2. Volume increases, with both price and volume rising indicating real buying interest;

3. Continuous net buying of stablecoins, on-chain data warming up;

4. Macroeconomic support, with U.S. Treasury yields declining and policies not hitting the brakes.

❌ Current Actual Situation:

• Most altcoins are rebounding with reduced volume, showing no significant signals of capital inflow;

• The Fed's stance is hawkish, and the short-term rate cut window remains unclear;

• The SEC has repeatedly delayed ETF approvals, with positive news yet to materialize;

• Popular coins like ZRO and ZK face high unlocking risks!

📌 Conclusion: Currently leaning towards "rebound" rather than "reversal," spot trading should remain cautious, waiting for mainstream stabilization + macroeconomic coordination resonance signals to appear, which will mark the starting point for the next layout.

⚠️ Risk Warning: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; the above content is for reference only and is not investment advice. Please ensure proper risk control when entering the market!

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