This morning at six o'clock, the explosion in Tehran, the capital of Iran, escalated the conflict between Iran and Israel, increasing the pressure on high-risk assets. Safe-haven funds are increasingly leaning towards safe-haven assets (gold, government bonds, yen), leading to a short-term decline in crypto assets.
Goldman Sachs: The Bank of Japan will continue to hold its position, with the next interest rate hike expected next year!
The U.S. SEC has delayed its decision on the staking options for Franklin's spot Ethereum ETF. In the short term, this will put pressure on Ethereum and the related ETF market, increasing volatility, with some institutional capital on the sidelines and a decrease in risk appetite. In the medium to long term, a weak SEC is likely to eventually approve staking, and new passive income channels could stimulate significant institutional investment, potentially leading to a more stable and larger influx of funds.
Technical Analysis: BTC: Yesterday, it was clearly stated that the current market is significantly affected by the instability of geopolitical conflicts, leading to weak market continuity. The profitability of this short-lived upward trend in spot trading will be very low, making it difficult to secure even small gains. Any slight escalation of this conflict puts significant pressure on the crypto market, which is a high-risk asset. Yesterday, the daily line peaked around 109, but this morning, influenced by the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, it quickly fell back by nearly three thousand points, closing with a long upper shadow candlestick. The daily close is above the moving average, currently showing three consecutive bullish candles, with the K-line turning upwards, and it is expected to challenge the 109-110 range again during the day. Looking at the 4-hour chart, there was a steady rise for 24 hours starting yesterday morning, and this morning a large bearish candle has formed, but currently, there is a bullish spike. The overall small-scale upward trend has not been broken, and there is still potential for slight upward movement during the Asian trading session. In terms of operations today, pay close attention to the resistance at the 109-110 range for potential pullbacks, and focus on the support at the 106-105 range.
ETH: The daily line shows a peak and then a drop, closing with a long upper shadow bearish candle, indicating that the market still has concerns about breaking through the upper resistance in the short term. This suggests that without more favorable catalysts (such as the approval of the staking ETF), it will be difficult to break through directly, and the short-term trend will likely be sideways consolidation or another pullback. From a long-term perspective, the ascending blue trend line remains intact and has not been broken, indicating a long-term bullish bias and a healthy correction. The 4-hour chart shows a large bearish candle that has fallen back to yesterday's gains. Although there is currently a rebound, during yesterday's upward movement, there was prolonged consolidation in the 2630-2660 range, which is putting pressure on the current rebound. In terms of operations today, focus on the resistance at the 2630-2660 range above and the support at the 2580-2550 range below, with the short-term bottom position around 2500 points.
Altcoins: From the current market performance, it is evident that the pullback of Ethereum and altcoins is significantly greater than that of Bitcoin. This is mainly due to the impact of geopolitical conflicts, making high-risk altcoins less attractive to the market. The sustainability of their rebound is very weak, and in a weak rebound market, profitability will be low, with a higher risk of pullback, making it difficult to secure any profits. The best strategy right now is to wait and not to FOMO, waiting for the geopolitical conflict to ease and for market liquidity to improve before seizing the market rhythm. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; proceed with caution, this is a personal opinion, not advice, for sharing purposes only.
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