Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Brothers, don't rush to argue about long and short positions this week. Let's first look at the CPI and PPI on Wednesday and Thursday. If the forecast is higher than the previous value, it means inflation isn't going down, and don't expect interest rate cuts too soon; market sentiment may take a hit. For those holding positions, be cautious and don't get liquidated on the spot.

Back to the market, the weekend rebound finally hit a key position at the 4-hour midline and the left-side supply zone, but it clearly struggled, not even breaking the previous high.

This means we shouldn't be too bullish right now; we have returned to the oscillation range of 100K~107K, and currently at a high point, the short-term trend is bearish. A rebound above 103K is accompanied by a decrease in spot premiums, indicating that shorts are exiting, and contract longs are holding on.

From the structure of this rebound, both the high and low points are lower, a standard rebound decline type. In simple terms, the bulls are not grasping the situation, and the structure isn't giving them any favors.

First, we must acknowledge that last week's pullback was actually a way for the market to deleverage. Too many people were going long, and prices couldn't rise. After this wave of liquidation, the market can finally catch its breath. If it can break through 107K and 108K, a new wave of market movement may come; otherwise, it will still take time.

For friends still resisting the shorts? As long as the price stays below the midline, the chance of testing 103K remains. However, I personally still believe that the likelihood of Bitcoin oscillating above 100K is greater, and it’s unlikely to plunge directly.

Also, don’t just look at the current liquidity; many people are still holding positions opened a month ago. Last week's low precisely swept away the densest long liquidation zone, with an error of no more than 100 dollars; I truly admire the exchange's precision.

Now, let’s talk about my personal script for this week, which can be summarized as first oscillation, then liquidation. Key attention should be paid to long liquidation points: 96500, 92000. Short liquidation points: 108000, 114700.

I believe many friends see these prices and think they sound outrageous, right? Just wait and see in two weeks who will be laughing in the end.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Level Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 106800

First Resistance Level: 105900

Support Level Reference:

Second Support Level: 105000

First Support Level: 104000

Today's Suggestions:

Currently, the probability of testing the first resistance level above is relatively high. As long as the 200-day moving average can hold, after stabilizing below, it will also test the pressure of the 120 moving average again. Instead of focusing on 106.8K, it’s better to first see if 105.9K can be effectively broken, while also observing whether the lower support is solid.

In the short term, 105K and the 200 moving average can be considered short-term support. If it stabilizes, it can be combined with a short-term trading strategy for a rebound. If it breaks below the key support of 104.8–105K, it may trigger short-term selling pressure, and one should be wary of rapid downward risks.

Today's trading will focus on a rebound strategy, with a key focus on the movement of the 200 moving average, looking for opportunities to go long in batches when it pulls back to the right level. Considering the macro environment is still bearish, do not expect a significant rebound; set reasonable upper targets and take profits in batches, strictly controlling positions and risks.

6.9 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Buy in batches in the range of 104000-105000, Target: 105900-106800

Short Entry Reference: Sell in batches in the range of 105900-106800, Target: 105000-104000

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than jumping to conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "always catch the top and bottom," but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

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