The beauty of time lies in its inevitable passage. The spring breeze, summer days, autumn moons, and winter snows—no matter how we gather our palms, we cannot grasp the ethereal clouds, cannot hold the flowing fine sands, nor can we retain the years that have passed. We watch the day and night alternate, the seasons change, the flowers bloom and fall, sighing at the clouds rolling and unrolling. Time only hastens our aging; do not believe in deep feelings, long-lasting regrets at the parting pavilion, tears drop on the spring shirt, and wine easily awakens!
After waiting for a few days for the correction market, today it has fulfilled expectations, basically aligning with our judgment on the market. Following the previous fluctuations, we have welcomed the final decline, dropping from the highest rebound point of 106800 to the current low point around 100400, marking a decline of 6000 points. In terms of operations, we mainly focused on short positions, entering around 106000, perfectly capturing the profits from this round of correction. The key point of this decline lies in the verbal conflict between Old Trump and Old Ma, which has caused panic in the market, leading to selling behavior. Fundamentally, this kind of impact only brings short-term uncertainty to the market, and it will still return to the essence of market operation.
Returning to the technical aspect, there is a non-farm payroll data release today, which still has an impact on the market. Considering the current market situation, if the non-farm data is bearish, it would be normal for the market to trigger another round of selling due to the current emotional response, with downward support looking at 99500 or further testing 96500. If tonight's data is bullish, stimulating the market's bottom-buying sentiment, the price may rebound back to the previous low support around 103000. If it continues to stabilize above this level, then this decline could form a reversal structure, allowing the subsequent market to continue seeing large fluctuations within the range, essentially returning to the fluctuations of the previous days. Currently, the short-term focus is on tonight's non-farm data.
In terms of liquidity, the market is indeed operating according to the liquidity clearing method. During the previous fluctuations, we mentioned that the bears were retreating, with no bear liquidity accumulation above, while there was a significant accumulation of bull liquidity around 101000. With today's decline, this accumulated bull liquidity has been cleared. Now, more liquidity is in the 98000-97000 area. If combined with the data impact, further downward clearing is possible, which may still clear out the bulls below.
On the chart, the daily level still shows a correction trend structure, with the market running down along the moving averages, and all moving averages showing a death cross. The bearish trend on the chart is still more apparent. However, regardless of how much it corrects, it is still far from the major trend support of the daily MA120, and we can view it as a normal market adjustment.
On the four-hour chart, it has started to show an oversold rebound and has received a lower shadow, indicating that there is still strength in bottom-buying below. Short-term speculators are betting on a rebound; whether this can form a sustained bullish counterattack will be revealed tonight. Currently, other technical references are not very important; the rebound is already close to the 103000 position. In my personal view, if there is a rebound, the short-term limit is around 104500; if weaker, around 103000 is about right, still needing to move downward.
In terms of operations, it may be best to wait for tonight's data. A short position can be placed around 104500; if the market's rebound is weak, 103500 can also be preemptively arranged. As for going long to bet on a rebound, it is currently more favorable to consider below 100000.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risk yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market changes in real-time may lead to delayed information. Specific operations should follow real-time strategies. Feel free to contact and discuss the market.】
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