On the daily chart, bitcoin has maintained a bullish trajectory that originated below $80,000 and surged to a recent high of $105,700. This rally was supported by strong buying momentum, evident from a significant volume spike during the ascent. However, recent red candles with pronounced upper wicks suggest overhead resistance and emerging seller interest. Despite this, technical indicators reflect a bullish undercurrent, as all moving averages—including the exponential moving average (EMA) and simple moving average (SMA) from the 10 to 200-period—show buy signals. The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) also indicates a buy, supporting the continuation of the trend post-pullback.
BTC/USD 1D chart via Bitstamp on May 15, 2025.
The 4-hour chart paints a more cautious outlook. Here, bitcoin has formed a double top at $105,700 and retraced to approximately $100,764, with subsequent price action forming a lower high—a textbook signal of bearish divergence. Recovery attempts lack conviction, mirrored in declining volume. The stochastic oscillator, relative strength index (RSI), commodity channel index (CCI), average directional index (ADX), and awesome oscillator all read neutral, pointing to indecision in the short term. Momentum, however, is on a sell signal, underlining weakened bullish strength.
BTC/USD 4H chart via Bitstamp on May 15, 2025.
On the hourly chart, bitcoin is entrenched in a short-term downtrend, forming consistent lower highs and lower lows. Buying attempts have been weak, with volume confirming tepid interest. The current bounce from $101,550 lacks strength unless the $103,000 threshold is decisively reclaimed. Market participants eye scalp long positions only above $102,800 with tight stop-losses, while failed tests of $103,000 present opportunities for short entries. The overall hourly bias remains bearish until a break above $104,000 is achieved.
BTC/USD 1H chart via Bitstamp on May 15, 2025.
A comprehensive strategy suggests cautious optimism on the broader trend but vigilance on lower timeframes. The daily structure supports long entries on pullbacks to the $98,000–$100,000 range, while short entries on the 4-hour chart are advised near failed rallies at $103,000, targeting a decline toward $100,000. Protective stop-loss placements are recommended below $98,000 for longs and above $104,000 for shorts. The current setup favors range-bound consolidation before the next decisive move.
Overall, while the macrostructure aligns bullishly, immediate price action is defined by a tug-of-war between waning momentum and strong historical support zones. Traders are advised to adhere to disciplined entries, remain responsive to breakout confirmations, and respect key levels to navigate the transitional conditions present in bitcoin’s current technical landscape. So far, BTC has managed to stay above the $100K mark for a full eight days.
Bull Verdict:
If bitcoin can hold above the $101,000 support level and break convincingly above $104,000 with strong volume, the bullish trend remains intact. A continuation toward $106,000 or higher would validate the broader uptrend suggested by daily moving averages and the MACD, favoring long positions.
Bear Verdict:
Should bitcoin fail to reclaim $103,000 and instead break below $101,000 with volume confirmation, it would signal further downside toward $100,000 or even $98,000. Momentum and structural signals on lower timeframes favor bearish setups unless a decisive reversal occurs.
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