Readers often emphasize in the comments that the advantage in the investment market is to be "early."

It seems that participating now is too "late," and is there any way to be "early"?

So what does "early" mean, and how can we define "early"?

If "early" means trying to predict the next trend in the market and find the next opportunity for wealth, so that one can position themselves in advance, then I cannot do that, and in my experience, I have never participated in any project that was so "early."

Take the three examples I heavily invested in mentioned in yesterday's article:

Bitcoin was launched in 2009, and I did not participate at that time.

Ethereum was launched in 2015, and I did not participate at that time.

CryptoPunks was launched in 2017; I looked at it at the end of that year or the beginning of 2018, but I passed by it without participating.

When Bored Ape was publicly sold, it was 0.08 Ethereum. I also looked at it but similarly passed by without participating.

However, all these missed "early" opportunities did not affect my later participation, nor did they affect my growth alongside them or my profits from their growth.

Investment is not about looking at the past. If you look at the past, you will always find someone who was "early" than you, and you will always feel "late."

If you participated in Bitcoin in 2011, you would find someone who participated in 2009; if you participated in Bitcoin in 2013, you would find someone who participated in 2011; if you participated in Bitcoin in 2015, you would find someone who participated in 2013…

If you think you missed the opportunity just because you feel "late," then you will be late from 2011 to 2031 and never participate.

Even if you were lucky enough to participate in Bitcoin in 2009, could you really seize the opportunity?

Otherwise, how could someone use 10,000 Bitcoins to buy pizza in 2010?

Famous Chinese players who got into Bitcoin early, you can search online; how many are still in the market? How many still hold Bitcoin? How many truly profited from Bitcoin?

They must have participated early, right? Their opportunities must have been good, right?

Why did many of them, despite participating early and seizing such good opportunities, end up with nothing?

The fundamental reason has nothing to do with "early or late," but rather that they lacked the ability to seize the opportunity.

Lacking the ability to seize opportunities makes it meaningless to participate at any time.

In this case, instead of complaining about not having the luck to "discover" projects early, it is better to look for reasons within oneself, to learn more, and to improve.

In this regard, Duan Yongping has a profound saying. He commented on his purchase of NetEase like this (the gist is):

If buying NetEase at 1 dollar was luck, then being able to hold NetEase and let it rise 100 times is definitely not luck.

This statement sounds "not humble," but it is very profound.

When NetEase fell to 1 dollar, basically everyone in China's tech circle knew: a company that had a hard time getting listed on the NASDAQ was about to be delisted; that was really embarrassing.

This opportunity must have been early, right?

But how many people dared to buy at that time?

Even if they bought it, how many could hold it until it rose 100 times before selling?

If an investor can truly understand NetEase, they could profit from buying at 5 dollars, 10 dollars, or 50 dollars. There are countless opportunities that seemed "late" at the time but still look very early in hindsight.

History is just a reference; the ultimate focus and judgment in investment must be on the future. If you always look at history, then anything now is "late"; if you look to the future, you can find your own opportunities, and participating now is indeed early.

So if we must define what "early" means in investment, it is to compare it with the future.

For example, at that moment, investors assess and research the value of a project ten years later. If investors can determine that a project's price will be much higher ten years from now than it is today, then participating today is early.

This Saturday (May 10) at 7:30 PM, we will have an online discussion. Everyone can leave their questions in the link below.

https://x.com/Dao_Views/status/1919577184945004559

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