Good morning, crypto friends☀️! I am Wang Yibo, today is Thursday, May 8, 2025, bringing you the latest updates and market analysis in the crypto world. Welcome to check in, loyal fans👍, and like to welcome good luck🍗🍗🌹🌹!

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【1. Overnight U.S. Stock Market Dynamics and Macroeconomic Policy Interpretation】

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The U.S. stock market closed in the green on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average initially rising by 0.7%, the S&P 500 up by 0.4%, and the Nasdaq index slightly up by 0.27%. On the market, the chip sector surged strongly in the late session, with Nvidia (NVDA.O) closing up 3.1% and TSMC (TSM.N) rising over 1%; the new energy vehicle brand Zeekr (ZK.N) saw its stock price soar by 11.5%, performing impressively.

In the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday local time, all officials unanimously decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged. After the meeting, Fed Chairman Powell warned at a press conference that the continued escalation of tariff policies could trigger a dual risk of rising unemployment and intensified inflation. However, the market generally believes that this statement lacks substantial guidance and is more of a wait-and-see stance. The current market is focused on the Fed's subsequent policy path, and the performance of economic data before the June meeting will be a key basis for balancing anti-inflation and stable growth strategies.

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【2. Outlook on the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Path】

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According to the CME "FedWatch" tool data, the market expects an 80.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in June, with a 19.8% probability of a 25 basis point cut, and the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut is almost zero. Looking ahead to July, the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged drops to 28%, while the expectation for a cumulative 25 basis point cut rises to 59.1%.

Currently, the Federal Reserve's willingness to cut rates in June is relatively weak, mainly based on two factors: first, the Fed's "data-dependent" policy framework has a lag, and only May CPI and PPI data can be obtained before the June meeting, making it difficult to support a significant easing decision with existing economic indicators; second, the time window is significantly limited, with the White House's tariff suspension period (July 8) and the advancement of new legislation (July 4) both occurring after the June 18-19 meeting, requiring the Fed to wait for the policy's implementation effects to reduce the potential risks of premature easing.

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【3. Bitcoin Market Analysis and Trading Suggestions】

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Bitcoin has recently shown strong resilience, moving in a fluctuating upward pattern. During the day yesterday, the price climbed along the upper Bollinger Band to around 97,432 USDT, facing pressure after hitting the key resistance level of the Fibonacci extension line at 1.618; in the evening session, influenced by fluctuations in the U.S. stock market and macro news, it briefly dipped to 95,732 USDT but found support at the MA200 moving average and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level on the 4-hour chart. After the Fed's interest rate decision, a brief panic sell-off triggered a V-shaped reversal, with the price breaking through previous highs, reaching a maximum of 98,823 USDT, and currently maintaining a high-level fluctuation.

Technical indicators show that the MACD double lines on the daily chart continue to diverge upwards, and the RSI indicator is oscillating at a high level in the overbought area, confirming a bullish market. In terms of operations, it is recommended to focus on the support range of 97,800 - 98,000 USDT. If it stabilizes after a pullback, consider entering long positions based on the MA5 moving average; if it breaks below the key support of 97,500 USDT, be cautious of short-term pullback risks. From a medium to long-term perspective, the increasing uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment combined with the approaching Bitcoin halving event suggests that the upward price trend is likely to continue, but close attention should be paid to policy risks and changes in market sentiment.

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【4. Ethereum Market Trend Analysis】

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Ethereum shows significant correlation with Bitcoin and also exhibits strong performance. During the day yesterday, the price faced resistance at 1,850 USD, where it coincided with the daily MA60 moving average and the Fibonacci extension line at 1.382; in the evening session, influenced by macro factors and Bitcoin's pullback, it fell to a low of 1,786 USD, completing a bottom formation at the MA200 moving average and the 0.618 Fibonacci support level on the 4-hour chart. Subsequently, the bulls pushed the price back up to 1,862 USD.

The current key resistance level is at 1,880 USD (weekly descending trend line pressure). If it effectively breaks through and stabilizes, it is expected to further challenge the previous high of 1,920 USD, and even push towards the 2,000 USD round number. The support range below is 1,850 - 1,835 USD; if this level is lost, it may return to a fluctuating pattern, and the short-term bullish trend may face adjustments.

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If you are feeling lost—don’t understand the technology, don’t know how to read the charts, don’t know when to enter the market, don’t know how to set stop losses, don’t understand take profits, randomly increasing positions, getting stuck while trying to catch the bottom, unable to hold onto profits, missing out on market opportunities… these are common issues for retail investors. But don’t worry, I can help you establish the correct trading mindset. A single profitable trade is worth more than a thousand words, and finding the right direction is better than repeatedly facing defeats. Instead of frequent operations, it’s better to strike accurately, making each trade more valuable. If you need real-time guidance, you can scan the QR code at the bottom of the article to follow my public account. The market changes rapidly, and due to the timeliness of reviews, subsequent trends will be based on real-time layouts. I look forward to moving steadily forward in the market with you.

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