Source: Cointelegraph
Original: “Will 2025 Ignite the 'Crypto Supercycle'? Market Opinions Diverge”
As Bitcoin returns above $90,000, hope is reignited in the crypto market. This wave of rebound exhibits a key characteristic: crypto assets seem to be gradually "de-correlating," meaning that even when the stock market is stagnant, digital assets can still rise independently. Ethereum and other mainstream coins continue to rise on their own momentum, indicating that even without Bitcoin's lead, the overall market possesses strong momentum. At the same time, global macroeconomic pressures are easing. For instance, the cooling of the international trade war has boosted investor sentiment, further fueling this round of crypto gains.
In 2025, the crypto market experienced a thrilling surge, with Bitcoin hitting new highs, bringing back an old question: "Could this be the crypto supercycle?" In industry terminology, a supercycle refers to a bull market that far exceeds the scale and duration of previous cycles. This differs from the traditional "boom-bust" structure and is based on long-term growth driven by mainstream adoption and institutional investment.
This article will outline the development path of the 2025 bull market, compare it with previous cycles (2013, 2017, 2021), and explore why many believe that the best times for Bitcoin and altcoins are yet to come.
This bull market began after the crypto winter at the end of 2022. At that time, Bitcoin plummeted to $15,000, and industry confidence was nearly shattered. However, by 2023, the market quietly brewed a rebound: long-term investors began accumulating at low levels, and institutions started positioning for the next upward cycle, such as applying for ETFs and developing custody services. By early 2024, Bitcoin returned to the $40,000 mark, laying the groundwork for the upcoming halving event in April.
Entering early 2025, the heat of the crypto market rivaled the peak of 2021. Bitcoin broke through its previous high of $69,000, briefly entering the six-figure territory (touching $100,000), and market sentiment quickly warmed. News of the potential approval of a U.S. spot ETF and friendly policies from various countries further fueled market confidence. The total crypto market cap surpassed $3 trillion, exceeding the peak of 2021. More importantly, this rise is steadier and more sustainable, unlike previous instances where rapid peaks were followed by sharp declines. This has reignited discussions around the "supercycle" theory.
Each bull market has its own style. 2013 was a carnival for early tech geeks, with Bitcoin rising from hundreds to thousands of dollars, capturing mainstream attention for the first time. The 2017 surge was driven by ICOs and retail FOMO, with Bitcoin soaring from $1,000 to nearly $20,000. The 2021 boom resulted from institutional entry and the explosive growth of NFTs/DeFi, with Bitcoin reaching $69,000 and the total market cap nearing $3 trillion.
In 2025, Bitcoin's market cap itself has already surpassed $1 trillion, with participants including not only retail investors and project teams but also national institutions, Fortune 500 companies, and sovereign funds. This means that the participation base, capital scale, and market maturity of this cycle are incomparable to previous ones.
From the charts (illustration assumed), each bull market has far exceeded the peak of the previous one. The total market cap in 2013 was only about $15 billion, rising to $600 billion in 2017, and reaching $2.9 trillion in 2021. Now, in 2025, it has surpassed $3 trillion, further validating the supercycle theory that "each wave of adoption raises the market's bottom and top."
Moreover, the macro factors driving this bull market are also distinctly different: 2013 saw the Cyprus banking crisis and dark web trading, 2017 was marked by the ICO boom, and 2021 was driven by pandemic stimulus and massive liquidity. The drivers for 2025 include: high inflation pushing funds toward anti-inflation assets like Bitcoin, a slowdown in monetary tightening policies, and the election of pro-crypto politicians, all of which constitute an unprecedented external boost.
A key factor that cannot be overlooked is the Bitcoin halving in April 2024. The block reward will decrease from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, and historically, every halving has led to a strong market surge: the 2012 halving led to the 2013 bull market, the 2016 halving corresponded with 2017, and the 2020 halving resulted in the 2021 surge.
Although the 2024 halving has been anticipated by the market, the supply-demand changes remain significant: miner revenues decline, leading to reluctance to sell, while demand continues to grow. This halving coincides with the ETF craze and a warming regulatory environment, which can be seen as "adding fuel to the fire." Bitcoin's price doubled from $40,000 before the halving to over $80,000 by the end of the year, paving the way for the 2025 market.
Furthermore, Bitcoin's annual inflation rate has dropped below 1% (lower than gold), reinforcing the "digital gold" narrative and attracting more institutional participation. Therefore, many analysts believe that this bull market is far from over, and the supply-demand dynamics will continue to evolve in the coming months.
Is the market at its peak? Current signals indicate—it's not yet at the top, and there is still room to grow.
First, institutional funds are accelerating their inflow. In 2024, giants like BlackRock and Fidelity submitted applications for spot ETFs, and the market generally expects approval in 2025. A single ETF could bring in hundreds of billions of dollars in incremental funds. Even if not yet approved, the anticipation is enough to drive funds to position themselves early.
Second, macro and geopolitical trends are improving. Interest rate hikes have paused, and the market anticipates potential rate cuts by the end of the year, which is favorable for risk assets. The banking crisis and currency devaluation have also enhanced Bitcoin's safe-haven attributes.
More importantly, on-chain and sentiment indicators have not reached a frenzied state. Google searches for "Bitcoin" have not yet hit the 2017 peak, and retail FOMO sentiment is moderate, indicating that the market is still in a healthy phase. Compared to the MEME coin bubble period in 2021, the current market structure is more rational and institutionalized.
If this is a supercycle, there will inevitably be an "altseason" ahead—where altcoins outperform Bitcoin across the board.
However, for now, Bitcoin remains the main character. Its market dominance has risen from 42% to over 60%, a near-term high. Historical data shows that in the later stages of a bull market, Bitcoin's dominance tends to decline while altcoins rise. However, this trend has not yet been observed, indicating that capital rotation is still ahead.
The reasons for this situation may include:
But we have already seen some signs: ETH and certain mid-cap tokens have quietly doubled, with Ethereum starting to outperform Bitcoin in the spring of 2025.
Ethereum (ETH)
The king of altcoins, a pillar of the DeFi/NFT/L2 ecosystem. In 2025, network efficiency has significantly improved, and the trend of tokenomics becoming deflationary is evident. The current price is still below historical highs (around $4,800), and if an ETH spot ETF is launched or DeFi enthusiasm reignites, ETH is expected to enter a new round of explosive growth.
Solana (SOL)
After plummeting to the bottom in 2022, it has made a strong recovery. It is now stable, fast, and has active developers. The NFT and gaming ecosystems are rapidly developing, with prices rebounding from single digits to tens of dollars, but still not reaching the 2021 high (around $260), making it a major L1 project with huge potential for catch-up.
Render (RNDR)
A project that combines crypto with graphic rendering (Render Network). It provides decentralized GPU computing resources for AI, the metaverse, and film and television industries. By 2023-2024, it has accumulated real use cases and partnerships, and market interest is gradually rising. With a relatively small market cap, it experiences significant volatility in bull markets but has high potential.
From multiple dimensions, this round of the crypto bull market exhibits strong "supercycle" characteristics:
However, the market is never smooth sailing. Even in a supercycle, there will still be phase adjustments to contend with. Therefore, risk control and information updates are particularly important.
Overall, if the supercycle theory holds true, then the second half of the year may see market cap, use cases, and user scale reaching new peaks. Currently, Bitcoin remains the leader, but the explosive growth of ETH, SOL, RNDR, and others may be the next chapter.
Related: Citigroup: Blockchain Technology May Experience an Application Wave Similar to the "ChatGPT Moment"
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