Good morning, crypto friends! Today is April 18, 2025, Friday. I am Wang Yibo. Let's take a look at the important events that occurred in the global market last night and this morning, as well as the latest market analysis for Bitcoin and Ethereum, to help you better grasp investment opportunities in the crypto space. Iron fans, remember to check in, and those who like will get rich!
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Global Macro Market Dynamics
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Politics and Economic Policy
: Trump continues to pressure Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. On April 17, Trump posted on the "Truth Social" platform, accusing Powell of being "always too late, always wrong" in his interest rate decisions, stating that his resignation "came too late." Trump believes Powell should follow the European Central Bank's lead in cutting rates. Previously, Trump had privately discussed the possibility of replacing Powell for months, but in December of last year, he stated that he would not push him out before the end of his term. If Trump does take action to dismiss Powell, the related events are likely to be appealed to the Supreme Court and could trigger market turmoil. Additionally, Trump expressed that he is not in a hurry to reach an agreement with the EU, and his trade policy direction remains full of uncertainty.
2. Geopolitics: There is new progress on the U.S.-Ukraine mineral agreement. On April 17, Ukraine's First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy, Svyrydenko, stated that Ukraine and the U.S. signed a memorandum regarding the mineral agreement, establishing a working framework for the two countries' teams and reaffirming their willingness to conclude negotiations and sign the agreement, which still requires approval from both parliaments. Previously, Zelensky mentioned in a routine speech on the evening of April 16 that good results had been achieved in mineral cooperation with the U.S., and the related legal matters had been basically finalized. According to Bloomberg, the U.S. has softened its demands for Ukraine to repay aid, reducing the estimated amount from $300 billion to about $100 billion. In the Israel-Palestine conflict, on the 14th, Israel proposed a 45-day temporary ceasefire in exchange for hostages to Egypt and Qatar, demanding that Hamas disarm, but Hamas officials responded on the 15th that the proposal did not include their core demands and had been "completely rejected." Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated on the 16th that if Hamas continues to reject the agreements regarding ceasefire and hostage exchange, Israel will expand its military operations in Gaza.
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Financial Markets
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: Thanks to the European Central Bank's continued interest rate cuts, the U.S. dollar index stabilized somewhat, oscillating above the 99 mark, and ultimately closed up 0.18% at 99.44. On April 17, the European Central Bank announced a 25 basis point rate cut, in line with market expectations, stating that uncertainty is likely to reduce confidence among households and businesses, and market volatility will tighten monetary conditions. U.S. Treasury yields rebounded, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closing at 4.330%; the more interest rate-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield closed at 3.809%. The three major U.S. stock indices had mixed results, with the Dow Jones closing down 1.33%, the S&P 500 index closing up 0.13%, and the Nasdaq Composite index closing down 0.13%. According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in May is 86.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 13.7%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates until June is 38.2%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 54.1% and a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at 7.6%. The gold market experienced significant volatility, briefly falling below the 3300 mark, with geopolitical and macroeconomic factors intertwining to affect gold price trends.
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Bitcoin
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: After experiencing fluctuations from the afternoon to the evening yesterday, Bitcoin saw bullish momentum begin to emerge around midnight. The price rose from a low of 83684 to 85434, perfectly aligning with the previously provided long position range, with long positions capturing over 1000 points. Currently, the price has slightly retraced. From the four-hour chart, the three moving averages are still moving in different directions without significant changes. After a period of bullish momentum, the strength has noticeably weakened, and without a sustained breakout, the day is likely to remain dominated by a range-bound market. Additionally, with the upward trend in technical indicators, the range is expected to shift upward. 85000 remains a key level for bullish recovery; if it continues to oscillate below this level, there is still a risk of retracement, with support at the 83000 level below. Investors need to closely monitor price breakouts at key levels to assess subsequent trends.
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Ethereum
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: Ethereum rebounded after hitting a low of 1563, currently reaching a high of 1616 before retracing and oscillating below that level. From a technical perspective, the trend indicators still show a strong bearish state, with no signs of a retracement contraction. The daily chart has formed a descending channel, indicating a downward trend around the 15-period trend fast line. The MACD has been expanding continuously, but the K-line shows a downward divergence, and the Bollinger Bands also indicate that the upper band has dropped to 1678 and continues to decline, while the lower band support appears too high. Overall, Ethereum is in a slow declining trend. In terms of trading strategy, it is recommended to focus on shorting at highs. If considering a low long position, the holding time should not be too long, and quick entry and exit are necessary. Especially after entering below 1550, if the price breaks above 1600 and the market turns unfavorable, one should promptly cut losses and exit. In this slow declining market, the pressure level continues to move downward, and investors must operate cautiously and strictly control risks.
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If you are feeling lost—don’t understand the technology, don’t know how to read the market, don’t know when to enter, don’t know how to stop losses, don’t understand take profits, randomly increase positions, get stuck by bottom fishing, can’t hold onto profits, miss market opportunities… these are common issues for retail investors. But don’t worry, I can help you establish the correct trading mindset. A single profitable trade is worth more than a thousand words; finding the right direction is better than repeatedly failing. Instead of frequent trading, it’s better to strike accurately, making each trade more valuable. If you need real-time guidance, you can scan the QR code at the bottom of the article to follow my public account. The market changes rapidly, and due to the timeliness of reviews, subsequent trends will be based on real-time layouts. I look forward to moving steadily forward in the market with you.
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