Thoughts on Making Money from Binance Launchpool in the Future
Conclusion: I have currently lent out all my idle funds to Fdusd.
During this time, if there are other projects with high certainty of returns, I will switch to them; otherwise, I will continue to lend. The VIP lending interest is not high, with an annualized rate of 9%.
Current Background:
Binance's Launchpool is one of the few ways in the market that can accommodate large funds, is safe, convenient, and offers certain returns. However, a recent change has posed obstacles for most participants, but it is also an opportunity to some extent.
BNB Lending Interest Issue
Previously, one could wait until the official start of the pool to use Venus to collateralize BTC or ETH to borrow BNB for participation. In 99% of cases, regardless of the BNB interest rate, the pool's returns would definitely cover it and yield a profit.
But that is no longer the case, as Venus has modified the BNB lending interest rules. Once the borrowing volume increases, the interest rises exponentially, which may ultimately lead to no profit.
In contrast, during the last SCR pool, the best way for large funds to participate was to borrow Fdusd immediately upon receiving the announcement, but this time window was less than 30 minutes.
I managed to borrow funds with my main account, but when I tried to transfer the large amount onto Binance, unfortunately, Fdusd had already been borrowed out.
It can be further deduced that savvy large investors will increasingly understand this point, so the next time they come to the pool, the borrowing window for Fdusd will definitely be less than 30 minutes, possibly even just 10 minutes.
Can I ensure that my funds are in my Binance account and that I am in front of my computer to operate within those 10 minutes? — I have no confidence in myself.
There are also a few additional factors:
- The market is improving.
An improving market means an increased probability of coming to the pool, and once there, the returns will be good.
- Reform of the Pre-Market Mechanism
SCR is the first pre-market project. Due to the single purchase limit, SCR is currently opening low and then rising. Many large investors who do not understand the rules are selling at the opening as they did in the past, missing out on 50% of potential profits (see the last analysis: https://x.com/laoxueeth/status/1844674149320663399?s=46&t=3jTmsk5C7YC7btMPtzVnQ).
It can be deduced that next time, it is highly likely that Binance will still have a pre-market opening and will still impose purchase limits, so savvy large investors will not dump everything at the opening, meaning the pool's yield will improve.
In summary:
The future returns from Launchpool are likely to improve,
Borrowing Fdusd is likely to be profitable,
But the certainty of borrowing Fdusd is decreasing,
Therefore, I choose to borrow in advance.
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