Dear family, the operational suggestions given internally yesterday included short positions for Ethereum at 1955 and Bitcoin at 65450. After multiple revisions at high levels, a rapid decline began early this morning, resulting in Bitcoin dropping 2000 points and Ethereum 80 points, providing significant profit space; thus, all positions were closed for profit.

Ethereum (ETH)

As shown in the chart, the three curves represent the upper, middle, and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands. This round of market movement has long operated within a standard wide Bollinger channel oscillation structure, with very clear oscillation rules: prices test the upper band multiple times under pressure before falling back, gaining support near the lower band before rebounding, forming a complete "upper band under pressure, lower band supporting" box cycle.
In this round, prices peaked at 1982.29, continuing the historical rule of touching the upper band and then retreating. Yesterday, I notified internal members to set short positions near 1955, and after successfully harvesting 80 points profit this morning, all positions were closed.

Currently priced at 1876, the price has retraced to the lower area of the middle band; after peaking at 1982, the market officially left the strong bullish range of the upper band and fell into the weak oscillation area between the middle and lower bands.
In terms of Bollinger channel trading logic: Prices stabilizing above the middle band indicate a relatively strong pattern; effectively falling below the middle band, it directly turns from support to strong resistance. The short-term upper core pressure range is locked at 1895-1910 (near the middle band), and if the market starts to rebound, this range will be the first major test.

In the short term, there exists technical support near 1860 if prices drop, and it is highly likely to trigger a round of oversold rebounds; however, considering the larger structure, this round represents a deep pullback after touching the upper band at high levels, prioritizing the rebound nature to be defined as a corrective pullback in the downtrend.
In other words, even if the support at 1860 holds and a rebound occurs, the probability of the price testing the middle band 1895-1910 area, facing pressure and declining again, is relatively high. Key observations for the future are the critical support line at 1840:
✅ If the 1840 support holds effectively, the oscillation structure of the Bollinger Channel will continue, maintaining wide oscillations;
❌ If the 1840 support is effectively pierced by a bearish candlestick, it signifies a complete breakdown of the long-term Bollinger oscillation box, opening further downside space and initiating deeper corrections.

Practical operational suggestion Risk warning: This is merely for technical reasoning and does not constitute coercive trading advice; all operations strictly set stop losses and control positions.
1. Short-term long strategy (betting on a rebound from the 1860 support)
Wait for the price to pull back to the 1860 area, and consider short-term longs only after the candlestick shows a stop-loss signal (long lower shadow candlestick, small bullish line stabilizing).
Short-term target: 1890~1895 (near the middle band area);
Firm stop loss: Leave the market if effectively breaking below 1840.
Important reminder: This position should only seek short-term rebounds; upon reaching the pressure area near the middle band, do not linger in battle and take profits promptly, avoiding long-term bullish views.

2. Short-term short strategy (layout under pressure during the rebound)
Wait for the market to repair and rebound, and when the price reaches the 1895-1910 pressure range of the middle band and shows stagnation patterns (long upper shadow, turning bearish candlestick), then layout short positions accordingly.
The first target is aimed at 1860; monitor the key support at 1840 for medium-term observations;
Firm stop loss: If the closing price stabilizes above 1930, the short strategy should be abandoned.

3. Crisis response plan for critical levels
① Downward breakout: If the price directly falls below 1860 with a bearish candlestick and the rebound is weak, do not rush to bottom fish; wait for a rebound around 1860 to face pressure before following up with short positions, looking towards testing 1840; once 1840 breaks down, continue with the short strategy.
② Upward reversal: If the market spikes upwards and stabilizes above 1910 on the middle band, it indicates recovery in the weak pattern, pausing the short strategy and shifting to a low-buying approach.

The current market is in a weak transition period after a significant drop from high levels, with an overall tendency towards weak oscillation. In trading, it is preferred to wait for key support and pressure signals before entering, avoiding chasing gains or losses. The main characteristic of oscillation markets is the continual washing out; patiently wait for prices to reach target ranges, confirming candlestick patterns before entering to improve the gain-to-loss ratio and mitigate risks from intraday fluctuations.

Bitcoin (BTC)

As shown in the chart, during the earlier bullish phase, the market operation rules were very clear: the price continuously strengthened relying on the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, testing the upper band multiple times under pressure before retreating, with support reestablished near the middle/lower bands, maintaining a standard upward oscillation structure until this peak reached 66928.

After touching the peak at 66928, the bullish momentum completely waned, and the candlesticks could not remain steadied on the upper band, initiating a gradual decline. Currently priced at 63193, the price has effectively broken below the middle band, officially entering a weak operating range between the middle and lower bands.
The core rule of the Bollinger Channel: Prices stabilizing above the middle band indicate a bullish environment; once the price falls below the middle band, it turns from support to strong resistance. The primary short-term pressure range is locked at 64400 — 65000 (near the middle band).

With downward movement, there is first-stage support around 62800~63000, and a drop to this area will highly likely generate technical corrective rebounds; however, from the overall candlestick structure perspective, this drop is considered a corrective phase after reaching the upper band at the peak, and therefore, subsequent rebounds are primarily categorized as corrective pullbacks within the drop.
In simple terms: Even if support around 63000 holds and a rebound occurs, when the price tests the middle band 64400-65000 zone, the probability of facing renewed pressure and declining again is high. Future key focus should be on the core support level at 62000:
✅ If the 62000 support holds, the wide oscillation pattern of the Bollinger Channel will continue, maintaining range trading;
❌ If the 62000 level is effectively breached by a large bearish candlestick, it signifies an expansion of adjustment space after the recent rise, the oscillation structure will be disrupted, and deeper downside potential will be opened.
1. Short-term rebound strategy (short long)
Wait for the price to pull back to the 62800-63000 support range, with candlestick signals (long lower shadow, stabilizing small bullish line) indicating stoppage; lightly attempt to enter short-term long positions for potential rebounds.
Short-term target: 64300~64800 (near the pressure zone of the middle band);
Firm stop loss: Exit if effectively breaking below 62000.
Important reminder: This time is purely to bet on oversold corrective rebounds; upon reaching the nearby pressure around the middle band, do not hold for the long term, take profits in time, avoiding long-term bullish reversal views.

2. Following the trend short strategy (layout under pressure during the rebound)
Wait for the market to repair and rebound, reaching the 64400-65000 pressure zone of the middle band, showing stagnation candlestick forms (long upper shadow, turning bearish candlestick), follow up with short positions.
The first target for downward movement aims at 63000 support; medium-term observe the key 62000 support level.
Firm stop loss: If the closing price stabilizes above 65500, directly abandon the short strategy.

3. Extreme break plan
① Downward break: If prices continue weak, fall below the 62800 support and the rebounds are without strength, do not blindly bottom fish; wait for a small rebound to around 62800 facing pressure before continuing short positions, focusing on testing 62000 support; if 62000 support is lost, continue with the short strategy.
② Upward reversal: If the market continues with long candlesticks and stabilizes above 65000 of the middle band, it indicates recovery of the short-term weak pattern, pausing the short strategy, shifting to a low-buying approach.

BTC formed a structural top under pressure from the upper band at 66928, and after breaking the middle band, the short-term perspective shifted to weak oscillation. This current phase represents a corrective period after significant declines from peak levels; trading should avoid chasing profits and losses, patiently waiting for prices to reach key support/resistance levels, confirming with candlestick patterns before entering to improve the gain-to-loss ratio, reducing risks from oscillation cleaning.

Official account - Bitcoin Bear X

(Note: 📣 Due to the timeliness and depth limitations of public platforms, as the market changes rapidly, key turning points, precise operational strategies, urgent risk warnings, and similar content must be synchronized in real time on the official account. Here, you can receive: Real-time strategy updates, in-depth analysis support, interactive Q&A, personal position risk warnings, and optimization suggestions. 🚨 Remember: The market always rewards those who act faster and with more accurate information! Become a winner among the minority.)

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。