Very interesting, recently the #AI investment market has serious divergences. Morgan Stanley, Citibank, Bank of America, and Castle, which recently flipped their stance, have begun to turn bearish. On the other hand, UBS and JP Morgan remain steadfast bullish believers!

I think having divergences is a good thing; it is the divergence that leads to price discovery, and it is the divergence that allows for the exchange of chips. For example, on June 9, Morgan Stanley released a somewhat bearish report, as shown in the chart below, stating that there are financial loopholes between #AI capital expenditures and actual realization due to accounting standards, as well as various cross-holdings to amplify market value, etc.

In our investments, bullish commentary on Twitter is commonplace, while bearish well-argued reports are quite rare. Listening to both sides clarifies the situation and is just right for managing one's position!

One thing is always true: do not be afraid of divergences; instead, be happy. The greater the divergence, the greater the waves, and the more expensive the fish!🐟

A market without divergences is a market where you cannot make money. Real opportunities are often hidden within significant divergences.🧐

Recently, how great is the divergence in the U.S. stock market?

If you track public opinion on platforms like Twitter and Reddit or look at research reports, the current discussion shows one side with bears frantically warning of a "repeat of the 2000 Internet bubble," while the bulls firmly believe "AI is reshaping the world."

• Bears say: valuations have detached from fundamentals, the PE is too high, it’s the final madness of a bubble.

• Bulls say: this time it’s really different; AI is a once-in-a-century technological revolution.

As the saying goes, direction emerges from divergences. When there are no divergences, prices have long reflected consensus, and entering the market at that time often means just taking over. However, when the market is full of divergences, with half the people bullish and half bearish, that is the true window for real investment.

Let’s look back at Nvidia; what did the market say in 2022?

"Decline in gaming card demand," "Crypto crashed and GPUs are unwanted," "AI is just a concept hyped up," "PE is too expensive," "The semiconductor cycle has peaked"…

The bears had their reasons lined up, and if you listened to them back then, you would be regretting it now.

But what did another group of people see? They saw:

• AI training requires exponential computing power

• The formation of a CUDA ecosystem creates a technical moat

• GPUs are no longer just gaming chips but are at the core of the next generation of AI infrastructure

This is the huge divergence.

And the stage at which #NVDA truly began to soar was precisely when the market was still half-believing. Because money is not made in certainty; money is made in the process of "uncertainty being gradually validated."

By the time everyone believes, the stock price has long since soared to the sky, and by then, when you enter the market, you may just be a bag holder!

More critically, if you've studied the internet bubble of 2000 carefully, it actually wasn't wrong.

The mistake was not the bubble itself, but that the market at the time treated all companies as "the future," resulting in many junk companies going under.

But the true infrastructure survived:

• Amazon redefined retail and cloud computing

• Google became the gateway of the information age

• The mobile internet and cloud computing ultimately did reshape the entire world

So the real important question in today’s AI market is not "is it a bubble," but rather:

Which companies will truly become the next generation infrastructure?

Bubble and era change often coexist. The key is whether we can distinguish who the real infrastructure is, and who is just riding the hype.

The real danger is when everyone starts to believe the same story.

Because at that time:

• Divergence disappears

• Expectations are priced in

• The last buyer also enters the market

At this point, even if the company continues to excel, the growth rate will start to slow. It’s not that the company is failing, but that the future has already been reflected in the price.

So currently, there is no need to panic; do your research and enjoy the divergence. Lie in wait amidst the divergence and reap during validation.

But remember, always look for companies that are genuinely building infrastructure:

• Those with technical moats

• Those with ecological barriers

• Those solving real needs

• Those capable of generating continuous cash flow

And not those that can only tell stories or ride concepts for speculation.

The time when the market is divergent is our bold entry opportunity. Once everyone is united in their opinions, the opportunity has long since passed! Embrace the greatest opportunity of the next decade, and seeking true AI infrastructure is the eternal bull!🧐

DYOR🙏

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