1. News Aspect: Dual Pressure from Halving Countdown and Macroeconomic Data

• Key Events:

  • Halving Countdown (Neutral to Bearish): Only about 7-10 days left until halving, and the market is entering a historic "intense volatility period," where large holders tend to quickly liquidate profits before positive news materializes.

  • Macroeconomic Data (Balanced Bullish and Bearish): The U.S. will release CPI data today (April 13), with market expectations for a 0.3% increase. If it exceeds expectations, concerns about maintaining high interest rates will intensify, creating short-term selling pressure on risk assets.

  • Large Holder Movements (Bullish): On-chain data reveals that medium-sized accumulation addresses (10-100 BTC) have added 2,340 BTC in the past 72 hours, indicating that mid-term investors have intentions to bottom hunt around 71,000.

• Impact Summary: The market is currently in a widely fluctuating state, lacking the momentum for a one-sided breakout, retail sentiment is leaning towards fear, while institutional funds show “defensive accumulation.”

2. Technical Aspect: High-Level Boxed Fluctuation, Indicator Signals Entering Dormancy

• Current Price: Approximately 71174

• Moving Average System (MA):

  • MA(120) (Green Line): Currently around 72347, a price drop below this level indicates a temporary pause in the short-term bullish trend, transitioning to a corrective phase.

  • Moving Average Cluster Contraction: Short-term moving averages (MA24/MA52) are beginning to coil around 71800, signaling an impending changeover window.

• Indicator Analysis:

  • TD Sequence: Figure 7 shows that a TD 9 top signal appeared near 73799, initiating a pullback, currently at the end of the adjustment cycle.

  • Pattern: The 1-hour level shows a clear "double top rollback" pattern, with the neckline support at 70422.

• Key Levels:

  • Strong Support: 71000 (Psychological Level), 70422 (Previous Low).

  • Short-Term Resistance: 72347 (MA120), 73800 (Previous High).

3. Operational Direction: Mainly Low Buying in Range, Strict Control of Leverage

• Operational Suggestions:

  • Flat Position: It is recommended to wait for the CPI data to come out. The ideal entry point is in the 70500 - 71000 range, with a stop loss at 69800.

  • Holding Low-Position Longs (Below 70000): It is recommended to take profits in portions around 71800 to lock in 50% profit, preventing a second dip due to news-related issues.

  • Holding High-Position Locked-in Orders: Currently, it is not recommended to cut losses below 71000, as indicators are approaching oversold levels; it is better to wait for a rebound to around 72200 to close positions.

• Position Management:

  • It is advised to maintain low leverage and strictly prohibit heavy positions or operations without stop-loss before halving, to prevent sudden "spikes" of over 2000 points.

4. Risk Warnings and Response Plans

• Risk Point One: CPI Exceeding Expectations Leading to a Crash. If macroeconomic data is unfavorable, BTC may instantly break through the 70000 psychological support.

  • Response: Set up automatic stop-loss in advance, and do not manually operate during periods of severe volatility.

• Risk Point Two: "Cleaning Leverage" Before Halving. Exchanges may use insufficient depth to conduct rapid liquidation.

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