Today's homework is very similar to last Tuesday's. Last time, there was media reporting that Iran was going to stop fighting and proactively seek peace with the United States, but it turned out to be outdated news. Today, another report emerged that Iran and the U.S. were preparing for a ceasefire for 45 days, but both sides quickly denied it. The White House didn't even present it to Trump for approval. Both times, the uptick was driven by information, and last time it dropped just as it was about to touch $70,000. I wonder if this time it can initiate a rebound.
The key moment may still be at 8 a.m. Beijing time on Wednesday, which is Trump's final deadline for Iran. Of course, no one knows whether Trump will continue with TACO this time, but I believe that if he does, it wouldn't be good for his approval ratings. Given Iran's hardline stance, if Trump doesn't TACO, it could indeed escalate the conflict.
However, there is also a possibility that the timing on Wednesday coincides with Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz, and there are already more and more ships passing through it. Although sensitive areas are still restricted, it’s possible that Trump might assume it’s clear and then unilaterally declare victory, withdrawing troops from the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. might not be so hardline anymore, and Iran could likely start negotiations.
If this scenario plays out, it wouldn't be too bad; at least the market can relax for a while.
Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the trading volume surged significantly on Monday, but it is still dominated by short-term investors. We've been discussing this almost daily. Currently, high-net-worth individuals and long-term investors show little interest in selling due to short-term prices or even geopolitical conflicts; instead, there are signs of accumulation. The chip structure is quite healthy, but due to poor liquidity, short-term investors remain the main drivers of price changes.
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