The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui, focusing on cryptocurrency market analysis, striving to provide the most valuable market information for coin friends. Thank you for your attention and likes, and reject any market smoke screens!

With the recent slump in the crypto market, the currency circle has returned to the public's evaluation, with all sorts of bubble deception rhetoric emerging. Lao Cui has also faced a certain degree of criticism. Today, I will speak candidly about my views on the currency circle and how I will respond to the current market trends. The U.S. has released a series of data today, and it can be said that every data point is almost determining the financial trend for the second half of the year. These data should be said to set the tone for a bearish trend in the short term of the currency circle. However, today's fluctuations are not dramatic, and these reasons have been mentioned in Lao Cui's article yesterday: there is no doubt that risk-averse assets have already fled before the bad news was leaked. Since hitting a high of 76,000 on March 17, it has continuously declined for half a month, reaching as low as 65,000, and it is still in a downward trend at this stage. Many friends have begun to question whether a new low will be created?

Lao Cui wants to explain this question from a higher dimension. The first issue to resolve is the definition of the currency circle. Whether it is yesterday's RWA or the so-called stable coins from earlier, these things seem to have no direct correlation with all the currencies in the currency circle, thus there is no direct linkage between the two. The vision for the emergence of cryptocurrency is extremely powerful; the most uncontrollable aspect is the concept of decentralization. Some users are attacking the currency circle using CZ's loyalty incident, believing that CZ has betrayed the concept of decentralization. Lao Cui does not know how to refute this view, after all, CZ has indeed taken a series of measures. From the perspective of human nature, this is something everyone would do. After all, so-called freedom exists within rules. Decentralization itself is an extremely nebulous concept, but can the currency circle survive without CZ? Does Bitcoin really represent the entire currency circle?

Many friends overcomplicate matters and are overly naive. The mechanism of Bitcoin allows it to operate independently and abandon platforms. Everyone seems to have forgotten the original intention of cryptocurrency. Today, I also discussed this topic with a coin friend, and I was inspired. During the conversation, my friend told me, "The dollar really has value." Just this one sentence made Lao Cui think for a long time and asked the question that was in my mind. "Where is the value you speak of?" "You can use it to buy anything you want, or say its recent appreciation is quite impressive." Is the dollar really appreciating? Since the dollar has decoupled from gold, hasn't its purchasing power been in a straight decline? All currencies cannot escape the path of inflation and devaluation; this is a fact. The purchasing power of one dollar in the millennial era can be said to be worlds apart from the purchasing power of one dollar today. Why does it create the illusion for most people that the dollar is appreciating?

In fact, it is simply an appreciation of the exchange rate. Anyone who has experienced a rate of 1:6 or even 1:5.5 sees the current 1:7 as very profitable. Perhaps being influenced by the previous link between gold and the dollar, many users also categorize gold as a currency. To some extent, Lao Cui also likes this comparison because the consensus of both is similar. What you can buy with dollars, you can also buy with gold. So, who assigns this so-called consensus? There’s no need to think too much; it’s just a group at the top of the food chain. You exchange gold for my energy, I exchange gold to buy what I want, the transaction can be completed, thus creating the so-called consensus. According to this theory, cryptocurrency is also possible, isn't it? What problems can it solve? Transactions that are not fit for the stage? Items that cannot be placed on the counter? I believe many bad things can come to mind, but what you consider, in the grand scheme of things, is negligible and not worth mentioning.

Just like the Lolita Island incident exploded by the U.S., most people first think of the dirty topics between men and women, or nerve-anesthetizing substances. But these things are actually the least worth mentioning. When life and money are discussed on the same level, money often becomes insignificant. This is similar to a group of people looking at the market decline, engaging in herd-like speculation, which only amplifies their own shortcomings. Many topics cannot be discussed directly; everyone just needs to remember that the current currency circle is the only way to demonstrate cross-border convenient payments among all trading systems, which is already enough. The remaining consensus issue is something that Trump needs to solve. Whether it is the RWA or the link to the dollar, it only gives the giants a larger space to operate. And this path will certainly be pursued because opening this road can achieve a global-scale financial market harvest; this is the underlying logic of the dollar endorsing the currency circle.

To view matters, one needs a correct understanding, which applies not only to the investment market but also to the entire life process. This perspective can avoid many problems that should not appear. Returning to the trend of the currency circle, the current trend is not directly related to its great macro narrative but stems from the fact that the主体 encountered certain setbacks. Everyone needs to remember that the current financial system is still based on the U.S. This foundational construction covers all investment markets. The so-called collapse that everyone talks about is difficult to achieve in a short time. The problems of the U.S. will inevitably extend to the crypto market. As long as we can prevent hostilities and make things controllable, returning to the perspective that the financial market should develop, the problems are still controllable. If the main issue is not resolved, it is impossible for everyone to see a reversal; thus, the reversal will be within a controllable range. Does this leave you feeling a bit confused?

Lao Cui is a firm supporter of bulls, so why is he bearish now? This is just a matter of different perspectives between writing and reading. The trend that Lao Cui recognizes is the future; this future may take 2 years, 5 years, or even 10 years, but definitely not this year. Lao Cui's estimate for the currency circle should be considered conservative; last year's estimate was 13-15, and this year it is 13, without reaching 15, which is consistent with the calls for new highs that have been made since the beginning of the year. The next stage’s profit-taking target is also before Trump leaves office. However, the mid-term choices have begun to shake Lao Cui's original intentions. After all, last year, it was impossible to predict this year's military conflicts, and these are uncontrollable variables. Lao Cui can only analyze based on the existing established facts. Will there be uncontrollable events in the future? No one can guarantee that. Whether it was last year or this year, professional institutions’ predictions are generally higher than Lao Cui’s. Even at this stage, investment banks like Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, and Standard Chartered still have a positive outlook on Bitcoin over 150,000, while Lao Cui only sees 130,000.

Lao Cui summarizes: Many friends are worried that the so-called financial crisis will lead to a collapse of the U.S.? These shouldn't be our concerns, as they represent a type of internal consumption. Lao Cui can now provide my answer: isn’t the current focus on solving the financial crisis? They are already working hard enough and have even mitigated some of the crises. They have made energy controllable, manufacturing is beginning to shift, and the stock market has also shown positive reactions since he took office. Even the so-called job positions have already solved some problems with the military conflicts, haven't they? The strength of the dollar and the rise in government bond yields are all manifestations of national strength. The problem with the currency circle lies in its inability to operate effectively in the short term, that’s all. The ultimate goal is still far from being achieved, and even domestic calls for the currency circle are becoming louder. RWA needs time to realize; I only need to watch to see if their actions are driving progress. The launch of X for trading, the official introduction by Nasdaq, plans always take time to complete, and the bullets are already flying; do not panic too much. Their own capital is heavily held, and the process of changing hands will proceed after Trump's visit to China. At the end of this article, regarding contract users, if you have questions you would like to ask, feel free to ask Lao Cui. Do not observe the timing of the article; there is a significant delay in posting because the review time is lengthy. Often, when Lao Cui posts a timing point, it takes 2-3 hours of intervals, by which time you see the market has already moved on. If you have questions, just ask Lao Cui for real-time communication.

Original creation from the official account: Lao Cui Talks Crypto. For help, please contact directly.

Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; skilled players can see five, seven, or even ten moves ahead, while beginners can only see two or three moves. The skilled consider the big picture, strategize the overall momentum, not focusing on one piece or one area, with the ultimate goal of winning the game. However, the amateurs will compete for every inch of ground, frequently shifting between bullish and bearish, aiming only for short-term gains, ultimately finding themselves in trouble.

This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on it is at your own risk!

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