Written by: Blockchain Knight

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink told shareholders that digital assets, private markets, and other businesses are expected to contribute $500 million in revenue within five years, but the growth rate of its crypto ETF has made this target appear overly conservative.

BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is the highest revenue-generating product among the company's global thousand ETFs, with a rate of growth to exceed $100 billion in assets five times that of traditional ETFs, and it is the shortest established and fastest-growing of the 20 largest ETFs in the United States.

After Trump wins in 2024, Bitcoin surged to a historical high of $126,000; although the price later fell back, and IBIT's total return dropped 18.82%, the asset shrinkage did not affect the fee structure.

Fund filing data indicates that IBIT generated $47.5 million and $174.6 million in revenue for 2024 and 2025 respectively, while ETHA contributed $19.3 million in the same period, with cumulative net fee revenue for the two funds in the first two years reaching $241.4 million.

Along with the newly launched ETHB in March, BlackRock's crypto ETF portfolio currently has a size of about $61.6 billion, with annual fee revenue of approximately $156 million.

Based on a 0.25% fee rate, the crypto ETFs need to reach a scale of $200 billion to achieve the $500 million annual revenue goal, with a current shortfall of $138.4 billion.

Relying solely on rising coin prices is insufficient to fill the gap; Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin will reach $100,000 and Ethereum $4,000 by the end of 2026, which means the portfolio size would be around $91.8 billion without new funds; even if Bernstein is bullish on Bitcoin reaching $150,000, there is still a $68.9 billion gap.

Capital inflows have become the core driving force to bridge the gap; data shows that three crypto ETFs have annual net inflows of about $34 billion, and at this growth rate, the target can be achieved within four years.

In terms of cumulative revenue, BlackRock's crypto ETFs are expected to exceed $500 million as early as mid-2027; if assets grow by 40%-50%, the milestone could be reached by early 2027; even if assets shrink by 30%, the goal can still be achieved by the end of 2027 to early 2028, only a long-term halving of assets would significantly delay the timeline.

In a horizontal comparison, the largest gold ETF in the U.S., GLD, has an annual fee of about $604 million; BlackRock's crypto ETFs need to reach 132% of GLD's scale to generate $500 million annually.

From an overall company revenue perspective, $500 million represents only 2.1% of BlackRock's total revenue and 2.6% of fee revenue; while not a core business, it can solidify the position of crypto ETFs within its business system.

Therefore, Fink's five-year goal does not rely on a single coin price or capital inflow; the core depends on whether the crypto ETF portfolio can ultimately break through the $200 billion asset scale, which also means whether the crypto market can reach more investors.