Organizer: Felix, PANews
As the United States and Israel joined forces to launch coordinated airstrikes within Iran, global attention not only focused on the smoke-filled battlefield but also turned to the blockchain-based decentralized prediction platform Polymarket.
While traditional financial markets were slow to react due to weekend closures, Polymarket, with its 24/7 trading characteristics, became a real-time "barometer" for observing geopolitical trends. However, traders flocked in hopes of profiting, with some "insiders" suspected of insider trading, raking in profits from the "national crisis."
A global geopolitical event has exposed the "pros and cons" of prediction markets.
Over $500 Million Bet on US-Iran Conflict, Some Made a Fortune While Others Lost
Since the attacks began, the prediction market platform Polymarket has seen a surge of new contracts covering various topics from ceasefire timelines to whether the Iranian regime will collapse.
In terms of trading volume, the series of contracts on Polymarket titled "How will the US strike Iran?" has generated over $529 million in total trading volume since its launch on December 22, 2025, making it the largest market in the "World" and "Geopolitical" categories; in the broader "Political" category, it ranks fourth, behind contracts related to Trump in the 2024 election cycle.
On February 28 alone, $89.6 million in trading volume was recorded. From February 28 to early March, all daily contracts were deemed "yes" after the attacks began, meaning anyone who purchased specific date contracts before the attacks profited by betting on when the US would bomb another country.
Currently, the largest completed markets on Polymarket are "Will Khamenei resign as Iran's Supreme Leader before February 28?" and "Will Khamenei resign as Iran's Supreme Leader before March 31?" These achieved 100% completion after Iranian state television confirmed his death, with transaction volumes of $98 million and $55 million respectively, making them some of the most actively traded geopolitical markets last week.
Among them, the account with the largest transaction volume, named "Curseaaaaaaaa," profited $757,000 by betting "yes." Four other traders also reached six-figure profits.
However, where there are profits, there are inevitably losses. According to monitoring by Lookonchain, the trader "anoin123" had previously made $2 million by shorting airstrikes but lost $6.5 million within a day after the strikes occurred, "turning a profit of over $2 million into a loss of over $4.5 million."
Mysterious Addresses Make Accurate Bets, Insider Trading Accusations Intensify
Although Polymarket is seen by supporters as a representation of "collective wisdom," it has also opened the "door of convenience" for criminals.
According to monitoring by the on-chain analysis company Bubblemaps, six Polymarket wallets profited $1 million by betting on the US conducting military strikes against Iran. These wallets purchased shares of the Polymarket contract "Will the US strike Iran before February 28?" just hours before the US and Israel launched their joint airstrikes. Such precise buying has raised numerous questions within the community.
However, Polymarket responded "strongly" with a statement. It claimed, "The strength of prediction markets lies in aggregating collective wisdom to make accurate and fair predictions about the most important events in society." The announcement also stated that after speaking with people directly affected by the attacks, they found that prediction markets "could provide them with the answers they needed in ways that television news and media like X cannot."
In fact, similar incidents of "insider trading" in Polymarket's geopolitical markets are not uncommon.
In January, a newly opened account bet about $32,000 that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would step down. Before the announcement of US military action, this account bought at approximately $0.07 per share and profited over $400,000 in a day, prompting a congressman to propose the "2026 Financial Prediction Market Public Integrity Act" to ban federal officials from trading prediction market contracts linked to government policy.
Earlier this month, Israeli prosecutors filed charges against a reservist in the Israel Defense Forces and a civilian, accusing them of betting on Polymarket using confidential military intelligence. They are said to have profited over $150,000 by betting on the timing of Israel's strikes against Iran during the "Twelve Day War" in June 2025.
Just days ago, according to Lookonchain monitoring, some suspected insiders profited over $1 million by betting on Polymarket contracts related to an investigation of the crypto trading platform Axiom by on-chain investigator ZachXBT, with the most profitable wallet turning a five-figure bet into nearly $500,000.
Has Polymarket provided a more transparent information reference, or has it created a monetization channel for those with insider knowledge? This debate will intensify with the evolution of the situation in the Middle East.
Related reading: Polymarket Starts Charging, Behind It Is a Calm Game of Regulatory Survival and Timing
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