In January 2026, the PPI data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that inflation on the production side has risen again, breaking the market's illusion of a rapid decline in inflation. The January PPI rose month-on-month to about 0.5%, and the previous value was revised up to about 0.4%. The year-on-year PPI for 12 months oscillated in the 2.8%-2.9% range, combined with the resilience of service prices, causing the optimistic pricing of "imminent interest rate cuts" to quickly cool down. Meanwhile, the starkly different attitudes of OpenAI and Anthropic regarding defense cooperation were brought into the spotlight, the first real estate RWA project in Hong Kong was launched, and Morgan Stanley applied for a digital banking license, reshaping the compliance path for asset on-chain. The stickiness of inflation suppresses the hope for interest rate cuts, and AI's ethical red lines clash with military contract interests. These seemingly scattered events are rewriting the flow of technology and crypto capital together, and form the main line this article hopes to clarify: the macro data and AI regulation game, and how they reshape the capital battlefield in the next stage.
PPI Unexpectedly Rises: Interest Rate Cut Hopes Forced to Downgrade
● The latest reading of production-side prices has disrupted the original rhythm. The U.S. PPI rose month-on-month to about 0.5% in January, not only higher than the market's previous consensus of a "mild decline," but also revised to about 0.4% for last month's data, indicating that production-side price pressures are quietly accumulating. Combined with the background that the year-on-year PPI for 12 months is still hovering in the 2.8%-2.9% range, the market is gradually accepting a reality: inflation has not declined linearly as expected, but rather has formed a new "plateau phase" at a high level.
● Structurally, this round of PPI rise comes more from the resilience of the service sector rather than a comprehensive rebound in commodity prices. Prices of energy and some bulk commodities remain weak, but service sector PPI continues to strengthen, reflecting the stickiness of wages, rents, and various service fees. It is for this reason that a judgment has begun to circulate in the market—"The rise in service PPI may extend the inflation plateau phase", meaning that even if there is a temporary adjustment on the commodity side, the gradual decline in service prices will be much slower than expected.
● The stickiness of production-side inflation directly impacts the pricing of the Federal Reserve's policy path. Previously, traders bet on a quick and substantial interest rate cut, but now, under the pressure of PPI and service prices, this expectation has been forced to be "smoothed": the number of rate cuts decreases, the pace is delayed, and the magnitude is narrowed. In this repricing process, the discount rates for growth stocks and high-beta assets have been systematically raised, and the valuation system for risk assets has been re-examined, with the market beginning to pay for the previously "overdrawn future" premium.
● In a scenario of "high interest rates for longer," the discount pressure on technology growth stocks and crypto assets is amplified simultaneously. On one hand, the present value of future cash flows for highly valued tech companies is continuously compressed by higher risk-free rates; on the other hand, under the logic of "no cash flow, strong expectations," crypto assets are more likely to face valuation destruction when discount rates rise. The inflation plateau does not equate to systemic collapse, but it means that sectors purely driven by liquidity easing and story premiums will face stricter valuation tests.
AI Giants at a Crossroads: Safety Red Lines Clash with Military Interests
● While the macro interest rate is being repriced, the AI industry itself is also standing at the forefront. The differences in positions between OpenAI and Anthropic in negotiations for cooperation with defense agencies are becoming increasingly apparent: the former emphasizes retaining control over key technologies in any military and security cooperation, attempting to find a controllable path between commercialization and ethics; the latter is signaling a stronger caution towards military use by publicly stating through its CEO—"We will never compromise on safety barriers".
● Behind this divergence lies a multifaceted game among AI ethics, safety red lines, massive military contracts, and national security demands. The defense department hopes to deeply integrate cutting-edge large models with intelligence analysis and command systems to gain a technological advantage; the capital market is highly sensitive to long-term and highly certain military contracts. However, potential consequences such as autonomous weapon decision-making, expanding surveillance, and algorithmic bias amplification force AI practitioners to confront the ultimate question of "how the technology is used," making the industry's narrative necessarily incorporate more value judgments and social cost considerations.
● Different cooperation stances will directly reshape the commercialization paths and valuation expectations of the two companies. The one more actively embracing military cooperation may gain a clearer revenue curve and greater capital expenditure support in the short term, but will also face greater pressure in regulatory scrutiny and public opinion, requiring a higher "policy and reputational risk premium" in long-term valuation discounting. Conversely, the party insisting on higher safety thresholds may initially forfeit some high-profit contracts, but could gain a higher quality regulatory endorsement and a longer-lasting brand premium once a compliance and trust-based AI regulatory framework takes shape.
● In a macro environment intertwined with inflation and fiscal pressure, the defense and security budget in turn shapes the pace of AI infrastructure and computing power investment. Fiscal deficits and high-interest rates limit government expansion space in most areas, but defense and national security are often regarded as subjects of "last compression." If the military becomes an important funding source for computing power and infrastructure, the investment cycles for large model training, specialized chips, and data centers may become more resilient, and their rhythm will no longer be driven solely by commercial demand, but closely tied to defense strategies and geopolitical considerations.
From Wall Street to Central: Compliance Competition of Digital Banks and Real Estate RWA
● On the traditional finance side, Morgan Stanley's actions provide a key piece of the narrative. Since it has been continuously laying out cryptocurrency and digital assets since 2014, this Wall Street giant's recent application for a digital banking license is seen as its latest strategic move. The timeline clearly reflects its path: first entering through research and custody, then participating in related funds and structured products, and now hopes to connect retail and institutional compliance service capabilities as a licensed digital bank.
● The digital banking license opens up new spaces for its diverse businesses in custody, trading, and financing. A licensed digital bank can provide digital asset custody, over-the-counter clearing, and financing services for institutional clients under stricter compliance requirements within the regulatory framework, while also building a complete closed-loop for RWA products from issuance and trading to collateralized financing. For large asset management institutions, this means they can allocate assets with on-chain liquidity through familiar compliance channels, without bearing the additional compliance costs of "grey area operations."
● In response, Hong Kong has approved the first real estate RWA project. After the amendment of the Virtual Asset Service Providers Bill, Hong Kong approved the first tokenized fund based on real estate, with the project officially described as—"The tokenized real estate fund is an important milestone in Hong Kong's Web3 policy". This statement marks that Hong Kong is no longer satisfied with viewing crypto merely as a trading market, but is embedding "asset tokenization" into the mid-to-long-term narrative of transforming its financial center.
● Wall Street and Central are forming a division of labor and competition in this new race: on one end is the large U.S. banks represented by Morgan Stanley, using digital banking licenses and infrastructure to provide entry points for institutional capital; on the other end is Hong Kong, representing offshore financial centers, leading in specific asset categories through real estate RWA and policy pilots. The competitive landscape for global compliant assets coming on-chain is unfolding along the two main lines of "licenses and infrastructure" and "asset pilots and policy windows."
The RWA Story under the Shadow of Inflation: Misalignment of High Interest Rates and Real Estate Cash Flow
● Under the macro shadows of service sector inflation resilience and the PPI plateau phase, the story of real estate RWA is not simply "on-chain = positive." High interest rates have raised traditional real estate financing costs, compressing valuations of offline projects, but they have also somewhat stabilized rents and service prices, causing a misalignment between the actual cash flow performance of real estate projects and valuation corrections. When these real estate cash flows are tokenized and moved on-chain, the yield curve transmitted on-chain often lags behind the tightening pace of the offline financing environment.
● For this reason, real estate RWA has the opportunity to be redefined as "bond-like" income-generating assets in a high-interest-rate environment. Its core appeal is no longer purely asset appreciation, but rather, the relatively stable cash flows derived from rents or operational income, along with a certain degree of inflation transmission capability, attracting funds seeking to hedge against inflation and interest rate volatility. For institutional investors, migrating part of the traditional bond or REITs positions to real estate RWA with on-chain liquidity becomes a potential strategy to increase yield and flexibility within regulatory limits.
● The improvement of RWA regulations in Hong Kong and the application for a digital banking license by large U.S. banks are collectively raising the "compliance premium" and cross-border liquidity of RWA. The former provides a regulatory path for the issuance and secondary trading of tokenized real estate funds, while the latter offers the infrastructure for cross-border custody and settlement, allowing RWA from different jurisdictions to be configured and collateralized under unified standards. This coupling of systems and infrastructure is expected to reduce the compliance discount of cross-border RWA products, enhancing their weight in global asset allocation.
● However, the development of RWA is far from risk-free arbitrage. The transparency of underlying asset valuations remains a key pain point—if the real estate value assessments, lease stability, vacancy rates, and regional risks lack transparent disclosure, the token prices can become disconnected from real risks. The clearing mechanism is also unresolved: once a project defaults or real estate prices fluctuate sharply, how on-chain tokens correspond to offline asset clearance and whether investors can efficiently exercise their rights depend on cross-jurisdiction legal and regulatory cooperation. Moreover, the uncertainty of regulatory boundaries also means that some RWA projects may face reclassification or even forced withdrawal in the event of tightening policies.
Funds Searching for New Narratives: The Triangular Pivot of AI, Defense, and RWA
● Placing the pressures of PPI inflation, AI military cooperation, and RWA pilots on the same map shows a trend in the trajectory of funds shifting from merely chasing growth stories to a threefold narrative of "safety, cash flow, and compliance." On one hand, the inflation plateau phase and high interest rates compel the market to reassess "highly valued, unprofitable" assets; on the other hand, AI's shift to defense and RWA's move to real estate makes "margin of safety," "real asset support," and "regulatory friendliness" frequent terms in the new round of capital stories, with funds more willing to pay for assets that can find balance among these three.
● In this macro environment, AI infrastructure, defense technology, and RWA assets may become the "new triangular pivot" in institutional portfolios. The combination of AI infrastructure with military orders provides a more certain demand anchor for computing power and chip manufacturers; defense technology, under the national security narrative, enjoys relatively stable budget sources; RWA binds returns to offline cash flows, providing yield and volatility hedges for portfolios. The three are not isolated, but together construct a framework that engages the technological forefront while not completely detached from the constraints of real assets.
● Financing cases of regional compliance tokens like JPYC provide marginal but indicative footnotes to this framework. JPYC completed a Series B financing of approximately $12 million, showing a market preference for tokens that are "locally recognized and functionally clear." These tokens have collaborative potential with RWA and digital banking infrastructure: acting as a bridge between local fiat currencies and digital assets, in conjunction with large banks' digital banking and custody institutions, to provide compliance carriers for tokenized assets, cross-border payments, and settlements. Although the scale is limited, it points to a more "embedded" form of crypto finance.
● The core change of this narrative is that funds are no longer simply betting on a purely crypto cycle, but are engaging in cross-market games at the intersection of "macro × AI × real assets." Macro inflation and interest rates determine the cost of funds, AI and military cooperation shape growth and risk premiums, while RWA and digital banking provide new mechanisms for bringing real assets on-chain. The configuration method between the technology and crypto sectors is thus being rewritten—capital is no longer simply swaying between "Web2 vs Web3," but is seeking balance in a more complex three-dimensional space surrounding the inflation environment, policy attitudes, and the quality of underlying assets.
The Key to the Next Market: Looking at Inflation, Contracts, and Pilots
The resilience of production-side inflation is redrawing the trajectory of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path. The rise in January PPI, the revision of the previous value, and the hovering of the year-on-year PPI in the 2.8%-2.9% range all remind the market that easing will not return as quickly as imagined, and high interest rates will be more persistently embedded in asset pricing models. This forces investors to rethink the safety margins of highly valued tech stocks and crypto assets—when "liquidity premiums" are withdrawn, what can remain are only those supported by cash flows or assets that stand on the advantageous side of macro and policy games.
The divergence among AI companies in military cooperation will become a barometer of regulatory attitudes and capital preferences. The cooperation boundaries chosen by OpenAI and Anthropic will be repeatedly interpreted by regulatory agencies, defense departments, and capital markets, subsequently affecting the valuation anchors for the entire AI sector—whether it leans towards a "high growth + high risk" military reinforcement model or towards a "high compliance + high trust" public infrastructure model will determine the survival space for different companies in future policy and funding environments.
The digital banking licenses and real estate RWA projects are just the beginning of the RWA wave. Morgan Stanley's digital banking application and Hong Kong's first tokenized real estate fund are more about providing the preliminary form of compliance and product layers for "how real assets can be brought on-chain." The macro environment will ultimately determine whether these assets become a "safe haven" for capital in a high-interest rate era or become new sources of risk amid inflation and regulatory volatility. Changes in interest rates, liquidity, and regulatory attitudes may amplify or compress the risk-return ratio of RWA.
In the next stage, the key variables worth closely monitoring include three clues: first, the inflation and PPI data in the coming months, which determine the market's pricing depth for "high interest rates for longer"; second, the landing pace and conditions of AI military contracts, reflecting the actual outcomes of regulatory trade-offs between AI security and defense demands; third, the emergence of more RWA pilot regions and categories, especially the advancement speed of major financial centers in Europe, America, and Asia in tokenizing real estate, bonds, and specialized funds. These variables together constitute the coordinates for the next market, and will decide how capital redefines stakes between technology, defense, and crypto.
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