I really enjoy having a lot of friends participating in the discussion about the popularization of AI and human unemployment, and I would like to say a few more words.
Many friends say that this AI development is different from the previous two industrial revolutions, this time AI is fully replacing humans, and AI can self-evolve without needing human assistance, but I don't think so.
"The greatest advantage of humans is creativity, while AI is execution."
This is at least how I see the evolution of AI so far. Perhaps in a few years, AI can develop empathy and understanding of human emotions, but at least currently, it is very difficult to achieve. This means AI is still more about helping humans with "execution" tasks and is unlikely to achieve comprehensive "originality."
For example, AI can already generate images, text, and videos, but the content generated by AI still requires "humans" to provide direction. "Humans" are responsible for emotions, ethics, stories, and endings behind AI, and no matter how well AI performs, if no one is "correcting" it, the final content lacks the "human touch."
Some friends may say that AI can also create, or that the evolution of AI can also bring creation, but the creativity of AI is fundamentally based on the efficient reorganization of massive data at a high level of "execution." AI's creation is still based on data models; once it exceeds the limits of the models, AI cannot do anything.
Furthermore, given the 26 letters of the English alphabet, AI might be able to write the Iliad, but it is nearly impossible for AI to write the Comprehensive Mirror to Aid in Government.
Humans are complex, and the complexity lies in emotions. Only humans can truly define from scratch what problem needs to be solved, why it is worth doing, and what emotional value it should bring. Currently, AI is unable to do this.
AI has already surpassed the average creativity of ordinary people, and this must be acknowledged. However, in fields that truly require soul, deep empathy, and groundbreaking originality, humans still lead by a large margin. As long as humans maintain this lead, the "work" attribute of humans will still exist.
Many friends are saying this time is different, but in reality, the steam engine, electricity, and computer eras all made similar claims, yet the total employment actually increased instead of decreased. At least up until now, AI cannot even interact with the physical world, let alone make fully autonomous decisions. Perhaps it can in the future, but at least it is not now.
When computers became popular, which old industries disappeared? What are those people doing now?
Typewriters disappeared, abacuses and manual bookkeeping are hard to find now, lead typesetting is almost unseen, civilian telegraph operator positions have vanished, and physical document retrieval is nearly non-existent.
What new jobs have been created? Programmers and illustrators are almost all using computers, and system operations and network engineers go without saying, which are jobs that did not exist before the advent of computers.
What I say may not be correct, but I feel that at least the likelihood of AI fully replacing humans and completely taking over human jobs, leading to a decrease in nationwide unemployment rates, is still low.
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