🧐 World Reconstruction Part｜What will happen to the distribution system of human economy when "intelligence" becomes infinite supply?

This article is today's super hit:

I found that after AI became popular, people’s anxiety had no place to go, easily resulting in tens of thousands of viral articles,

but this article does not tell you how to change your life with AI or earn millions; it is completely the opposite,

it exposes a possibility that we are currently reluctant to face:

This time, what is being reconstructed may not be the industry, but the "distribution system".

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The reason this article is so popular is that it goes against the grain:

It captures the opposite of the current AI craze: warning of the economic disaster that the era of AI may bring.

The most popular belief in the market now: AI = Productivity = Bull Market.

But the question it raises is: Machines don’t spend money. It’s no use making GDP soar; it won’t go eat at Haidilao, won’t buy houses in school districts, and won’t indulge in impulse buying.

What does this mean?

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For the past two hundred years, humanity's experience with technological revolutions has been: unemployment - new industries - new jobs - new consumption - new prosperity.

This time the problem is: AI can even do "new jobs" itself, so the entire ecosystem undergoes a huge change, resulting in a new feedback loop:

AI gets stronger - cuts white-collar jobs - wages get weaker - consumption worsens - companies feel more anxious - adopt more AI - AI gets stronger, and then a negative feedback without brakes emerges.

My simple understanding is: when "intelligence" becomes an infinite supply, the distribution structure of the entire human economic system will fail.

The reason is very simple: this is not a technical issue but a collapse of the distribution mechanism, so the real risk is the disappearance of consumption, everything will be reconstructed:

In the future, it may make rational sense for each company individually: lay off 15% of the staff, profit margins increase, stock prices rise first.

But when everyone does this together, the result is: you all wipe out the biggest buyer: the human middle class.

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There’s a term in the article that I really like: Ghost GDP. The data looks prosperous, the output on paper is increasing, but money no longer flows through ordinary households and doesn’t return to the consumption side.

GDP is like a "spinning fan", which is this negative feedback loop I mentioned above.

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Who will first be in trouble?

Not factory workers, but those "memo writers, meeting attendees, and PPT creators".

These are the "white-collar service industry" jobs that seem not to produce physical goods.

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Then the second wave is even more lethal: white-collar unemployment/pay cuts - rushing to seize service jobs/gig positions - supply surges - wages in service sectors are also squeezed

So the "buffer" is also gone.

You will see a new type of poverty: high education but low income.

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Next is the death of the "friction economy".

What is a friction economy? It relies on your laziness, your lack of time, your reluctance to compare prices, and your habitual renewals to make money.

An AI agent basically helps you resolve this: "You want to renew? I will negotiate for you." "You are being overcharged? I will compare prices for you."

Friction → 0.

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This will turn many seemingly "moat" business models into paper-thin: food delivery platforms, subscription economics, travel platforms, insurance renewals, and even real estate agencies;

We always thought this was "relationships".

The article states more harshly: many so-called relationships are actually friction + friendly expressions. The future might change drastically.

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When agents really start spending on your behalf, the meanings of brands, advertisements, and channels will be rewritten.

Because machines do not care about "the app you like", they look at: price/speed/refund/rates/best path.

Machines are not moved by UI, nor will they be influenced by trends.

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Then the article plunged the knife into the financial system: it’s not an explosion of "subprime" low-credit groups.

Instead, it may be: prime mortgages are starting to be questioned.

Because the underlying assumption of mortgages is: you are likely to maintain similar income over the next 30 years.

What AI is shaking is exactly this assumption.

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Even more ominous is the private credit line.

In recent years, private equity + private credit + insurance annuities have created a structure that seems like a "perpetual motion machine":

annuity funds come in → buy private credit → earn interest spread + collect management fees

There’s only one premise: these assets must have "money as money". If SaaS's ARR is no longer recurring, that perpetual motion machine becomes a blender.

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So this article discusses a new type of crisis: it’s not a liquidity crisis, but an "income structure crisis".

You can inject liquidity into the market, cut interest rates, conduct QE, but it may not help.

Because the issue is not in capital costs, but: an AI agent can take out an $180,000/year job for just $200/month.

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So what about the government?

It may even find it hard to collect taxes, because the tax base is "human time": payroll taxes, personal income taxes.

When output comes from machines, and income does not flow to households, tax revenues collapse.

But at the same time, unemployment benefits and subsidy pressures skyrocket.

Collecting less, spending more, and it’s not short-term but structural.

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The article proposes two seemingly sci-fi but potentially real solutions:

Tax AI inference/power: even establish a kind of "universal stockholding/profit-sharing" AI infrastructure equity (similar to sovereign funds/royalties);

In simple terms: redefine "who owns productivity".

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Let me mention my biggest feeling after reading:

When intelligence becomes cheap, what becomes really scarce will be:

Distribution ability, institutional adaptation speed, and time.

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The most important investment summary:

The greatest risk in the future may not be "AI bubble", but "demand collapse".

You can imagine a world:

Computing power companies continue to profit, GDP looks good,

but the consumption side feels drained.

This is the "ghost prosperity".

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By the way:

The article mentions a very realistic point: when agents start bypassing the interchange (2-3%) of Visa/Mastercard,

they will naturally seek cheaper settlements.

Stablecoins + L2 rails may become the preferred choice for AI businesses.

Machine-to-machine payments will not be moved by "points systems".

So cryptocurrencies and stablecoins may be widely used.

This is also why many big shots say: Crypto might not be for humans but for AI intelligences to use.

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Many may ask if this situation will really happen?

I believe:

This risk is not a matter of "will it happen", but "to what extent and at what pace will it happen".

In other words: the direction is real, but the path may not be as extreme as described in this article; everything develops incrementally, not all at once.

Within ten years, there may be a case where technology runs too fast and the system doesn't keep up, but what truly decides whether we move towards prosperity or decline is whether the system can keep up with this leap in productivity.

So it won't genuinely head towards collapse.

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Finally, to summarize in one sentence:

This article is not essentially saying that AI will destroy the economy,

but is reminding us: when "intelligence" changes from scarce to cheap, the most core distribution system of human society must be rewritten.

When machines start creating value, but humans do not receive income, growth itself will become a form of "idling".

AI won't destroy the economy, but it may render the old distribution structures ineffective.

The most crucial thing in the next ten years isn’t "who makes more money with AI", but: who can redefine how money is distributed in the new productivity structure.

Lastly, here’s a question (which is also the reason I am posting this):

If AI can really make human labor "less valuable",

among the assets you currently hold:

Which are betting on "intelligent capitalization"?

Which are actually betting on "the middle class forever strong consumption"?

Which might become evergreen in the AI era?

Clarifying this point is more crucial than chasing any AI concept stock.

(End)

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