Event Review ⚡️
Within just over an hour, the price of Bitcoin experienced significant fluctuations. From the early announcement by Trump to raise global tariffs from 10% to 15%, to the subsequent liquidation of large positions and massive liquidations, the market quickly declined amid panic and risk-averse sentiment. In addition to intensifying macro policies and geopolitical uncertainties, several well-known institutions and heavyweight figures (such as mining companies liquidating positions, and Ethereum's founder reducing holdings) also made moves, greatly shaking market confidence and creating a situation of "bad news gathering and increasing panic."
Timeline 📅
- 08:08: Trump announced the increase of global tariffs from 10% to 15%, triggering global trade tensions and risk-averse sentiment, putting downward pressure on crypto assets.
- 08:30: BTC price at approximately $67,442, the market began to experience significant volatility and signs of rapid decline appeared.
- 08:46: Price fell below $67,000, and selling pressure notably increased.
- 09:02: Weak data from the U.S. market appeared, and BTC contract price was lowered to about $66,173.
- 09:07: BTC broke below the $66,000 mark, and market confidence was further eroded.
- 09:10: Significant liquidation occurred—over $154 million in positions were forcibly closed within the past hour, severely impacting highly leveraged longs.
- 09:18: Panic liquidation continued, around $200 million in long positions were cleared in a short time, and the selling wave intensified.
- 09:30: BTC price approached $65,000, with some technical support gradually forming.
- 09:45: From 08:30 to 09:45, BTC price dropped from $67,442 to $64,233, with a total decline of about 4.76%.
- 10:35: The market experienced a brief consolidation, with the latest price updating to about $64,770, waiting for the next movement after fluctuations.
Cause Analysis 🔍
The severe fluctuations in this round of market movements can mainly be attributed to two aspects:
Rising Macro Policies and Geopolitical Risks
Trump’s tariff adjustments, the U.S. military stance in the Middle East, and related court rulings have intensified market uncertainties regarding global trade and macroeconomic prospects. Investors are selling off risk assets and turning to safe-haven assets like gold and silver, leading to declines in high-risk crypto assets like BTC.Leverage Trading and Liquidation of Large Positions Triggering Chain Reactions
During the continuous market decline, longs held with high leverage were forcibly liquidated. On-chain data indicates that over the past hour, liquidation amounts reached hundreds of millions of dollars, especially with long positions accounting for nearly 99%. Notable liquidations from mining companies, operations from safe accounts, and reductions by large holders such as Ethereum's founder have triggered panic in the market and led to more sell-offs.
Technical Analysis 📊
This analysis is based on the 45-minute K-line data of Binance USDT perpetual contracts, observing BTC/USDT, with the main conclusions as follows:
- Price Trend and Moving Average Status
The current price is running along the lower Bollinger Band, in a clearly weak zone. All short-term moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50) and EMA (EMA5/10/20/50/120) are arranged in a bearish formation, indicating a strong downward trend. - Indicators Show Oversold Signals
The KDJ indicator has entered the oversold area, and the RSI is also at a low level, indicating potential signs of a rebound in the short term, with some technical indicators such as TD price reversal beginning to show bullish signals. - Trading Volume and Liquidation Data
The trading volume of the near 10-day and 20-day moving averages has increased by 352.78% and 129.59% respectively, indicating active market trading, but the phenomenon of high leverage liquidations (nearly $70 million in liquidation amounts within the last hour, and a net outflow of $9 million from major players) further confirms that funds continue to flow out under short-selling pressure. - MACD and Moving Average Slopes
The MACD histogram continues to shrink, with EMA20 slope at approximately -1.12%, and EMA24 and EMA52 also showing steep declines, indicating that downward momentum remains strong in the short to medium term.
Market Outlook 📈
From a technical perspective, although various indicators show that the market is in an oversold state, indicating possible short-term rebound signals, the overall market trend remains bearish due to ongoing macro-negative factors and the persistent pessimism from continuous liquidations. Future trends may develop as follows:
- Consolidation and Bottom Formation
In the short term, BTC may fluctuate around $65,000, and if risk-averse sentiment temporarily eases and some technically oversold indicators start to play a role, a slight rebound may occur. However, overall, the competition between buyers and sellers remains fierce, and attention must be paid to large positions, trading volume, and the further direction of macro politics and policies. - Potential Bottom Opportunities and Risks
If market funds begin to flow back into support, along with stabilization in technical indicators such as RSI and KDJ, the possibility of a bottom reversal will gradually emerge. However, uncertainties concerning global trade, tariff policies, and geopolitical situations may still lower market sentiment at any time, and investors need to remain cautious and be prepared for risk control.
In summary, BTC is currently still in a period of significant volatility. Although there are oversold areas from a technical point of view after the sharp decline, the multiple pressures from macro and market funds remain severe. Investors should closely monitor subsequent news dynamics and short-term changes in technical indicators, and adjust positions promptly to avoid further magnifying losses from sudden situations.
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