On February 13, 2026 at 21:30 (UTC+8), the U.S. Labor Department announced that the January unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate was 2.4%, lower than the market expectation of 2.5% and significantly below the previous value of 2.7%. This set of data pulls inflation back to a position close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, dispelling previous market concerns about inflation "rising again." As signs of slowing inflation become established, the core issue becomes increasingly clear: how will the Federal Reserve rewrite its path to interest rate cuts at this macro turning point, and how will crypto assets, which stand at the forefront of interest rates and liquidity tides, be re-priced?

Inflation Approaching the 2% Target: A Mild but Key Deviation

● Changes in data rhythm: The actual January CPI year-on-year rate was 2.4%, slightly lower than the market expectation of 2.5% and a more definitive step back from the previous value of 2.7%. This indicates that inflation has not suddenly plummeted but is showing a "2.7% → 2.5% expectation → 2.4% actual" gradual cooling trajectory, providing the market with an observable and trackable downward rhythm, rather than monthly noise.

● The symbolic significance of approaching the 2% target: Some market views refer to this reading as "the closest inflation data to the Federal Reserve's 2% target since 2024,” this qualitative assessment itself highlights its symbolic significance. For the asset pricing framework, which has long been suppressed by high inflation, 2.4% is not just a number but resembles a psychological watershed for the market to revisit the discussion on "whether inflation has truly been controlled."

● Neither out of control nor completely safe: The 2.4% level presents a gap to the 2% official target, signifying that risks have not been fully alleviated; however, compared to earlier higher readings, it clearly no longer poses a threat of "out-of-control inflation." It places inflation in a delicate position: sufficient to prevent the Federal Reserve from recklessly loosening but also enough to convince the market that the necessity for extreme tightening is receding.

● Slightly better than psychological expectations: Although the 2.5% expectation itself hinted at the market accepting the framework of "inflation slowly retreating from a high level," the actual result of 2.4% still constitutes a positive surprise. For investors who were previously concerned about inflation sticking again, this reading felt more like a "mild outperformance," lacking strong drama but quietly reshaping risk appetite and pricing anchor points.

Decomposing Perspectives

● Policy space has been reopened: With inflation approaching the 2% target, the Federal Reserve's concerns about "premature rate cuts possibly reigniting prices" have been partially alleviated. Compared to readings above 3%, 2.4% provides the central bank with greater maneuverability—thinking about how to reserve more buffer for economic growth and financial system pressures without sacrificing the price stability goal, and the existence of this space will be quickly priced by the market.

● Repricing of rate cut timelines: In the phase dominated by higher inflation readings, the market was once worried that the expected rate cuts within the year would be continuously delayed or even reduced in number. Now, as inflation turns toward 2%, traders are starting to re-bet on an "earlier and more frequent" rate cut path within the year; assumptions on easing rhythm in interest rate futures and macro hedging strategies are undergoing shifts.

● Balancing between "insurance" and "easing": Even with inflation receding, the Federal Reserve still needs to find a balance between the "insurance" strategy to prevent a resurgence of inflation and the "easing" demand to avoid long-term high interest rates suppressing employment and growth. The resilience of the job market and marginal changes in economic growth will form a decision-making panel alongside inflation data; the Federal Reserve cannot completely abandon caution because of a single set of data.

● Increased weight of single-month data: From a decision-making mechanism perspective, the Federal Reserve will not immediately pivot due to the January CPI's single reading, but the result of 2.4% is destined to become an important reference in subsequent meetings. It will be placed within the sequence of data for the coming months, and if similar readings repeatedly emerge, the easing path will no longer just be a market wager but will gradually become embedded in official communications and policy implementation.

Narrative Interweaving

● Enhanced macro sensitivity background: Recently, the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks has significantly increased, often oscillating in unison during multiple macro events (such as inflation data and interest rate decisions). This trend of "risk assetization" makes Bitcoin more sensitive to interest rates and liquidity; its price is no longer solely driven by narratives within the industry but is deeply embedded in the macro coordinates of global asset allocation.

● Changes in nominal and real interest rate paths: With inflation receding to 2.4% and the market re-pricing expectations for future rate cuts, the downward expectations for nominal interest rates have been strengthened. If inflation continues to stay within a relatively moderate range, the real interest rate path is also expected to change—most notably for "non-yielding assets" without coupons or dividends, this environment is evidently friendlier, as holding costs are relatively reduced on a macro level.

● Risk-return tradeoff in capital allocation: When risk-free yields are high, capital tends to stay in tools like cash and short bonds to obtain certain returns; once the market begins to expect these yields to gradually decline, some funds will be motivated to leave "safe assets" and take on higher volatility in exchange for higher beta returns. Bitcoin and the broader crypto assets are natural candidates in this class of "high beta targets."

● Focusing on directional rather than precise values: Currently, there is a lack of rigorous, unified quantitative results that can provide an exact correlation coefficient between Bitcoin prices and CPI readings; similarly, we do not assume any specific price points or percentage rises and falls. Under such information constraints, it is more important to grasp the directional mechanism: cooling inflation → easing rate expectations → rising risk appetite → benefits for high beta assets, this is a structural rather than a point-like logical chain.

Deep Game Theory

Under the narrative of gradual inflation cooling and rising easing expectations, the interaction between global risk assets begins to appear particularly critical. A typical fund flow path is often: when the signal of cooling inflation becomes credible, funds first pull away from the marginal positions of "laying down and winning tools" like cash and short bonds, prioritizing flows toward traditional risk assets with better liquidity and mature pricing mechanisms, especially major market indices like U.S. stocks.

This initial stage of rotation is more like a test of "risk returning," as institutions will first increase risk exposure on familiar targets to test the stability of the macro environment. Once assets like U.S. stocks validate over a few months that the economy has not significantly slowed down and the financial environment is generally controllable, the second phase of risk appetite will unfold, with crypto assets often subsequently playing the role of high beta segments—they usually have a smaller weight in institutional portfolios but their marginal increments can amplify volatility. Meanwhile, institutional funds focus more on macro and portfolio-level allocations, tending to phase their layouts near key data and policy nodes, while retail funds are more prone to follow price and sentiment, accelerating their inflow as trends form.

It is important to emphasize that this rotation from Wall Street to on-chain is not a unidirectional upward straight line. Along the way, it may involve large-scale profit taking, passive deleveraging against sudden events, and short-term counter fluctuations of "buying the news, selling the facts." For the crypto market, this means that even with the macro main line leaning towards bullish, there may still be sharp fluctuations in local time periods, testing participants' control over rhythm and position management rather than betting on a single inflection point.

The Next Act in the Crypto Market After Gradual Inflation Cooling

With the inflation year-on-year rate dropping to 2.4% and approaching the Federal Reserve's 2% target range, it provides data support for a potential shift in future monetary policy from tight to loose and builds a more resilient base for the sentiment of global risk assets. Within this framework, Bitcoin is gradually shifting from an early "pure narrative asset" to an asset that is highly sensitive to the interest rate curve and macro liquidity, making its movements increasingly difficult to separate from variables like CPI, interest rate expectations, and central bank balance sheets. The upcoming key CPI releases and Federal Reserve meetings will constitute a time window for observing how medium to long-term funds will reorganize in the crypto market: on one hand determining the easing rhythm, and on the other hand testing whether inflation has truly been subdued near the target.

However, any single data point is not sufficient to declare that "the big trend has been locked in." What truly determines the medium to long-term direction of the crypto market is not this surprise of 2.4%, but whether inflation can remain relatively stable within the 2%—2.5% range. If data repeatedly spikes in the coming months, this round of trading about "easing's arrival" will be quickly repriced; only if inflation firmly establishes itself in a moderate range, paired with no drastic deterioration in growth and employment, can this new channel between macro and crypto evolve into a lasting and robust main line.

Join our community to discuss and become stronger together!
Official Telegram group: https://t.me/aicoincn
AiCoin Chinese Twitter: https://x.com/AiCoinzh

OKX Welfare group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=l61eM4owQ
Binance Welfare group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=ynr7d1P6Z

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。