1. Review of the market movements over the past two days

The price encountered resistance and fell back within the range of 70,000-71,000. In fact, on February 10th, I already shared this view. At that time, the price formed a clear resistance above, and we judged this to be an effective resistance level. After confirming the pressure, one could try to initiate short positions on the left side.

Although there wasn't a standard bearish structure formed at that time, and there were no consecutive lower swing lows, we have emphasized before that after confirming effective resistance, one can position themselves in advance.

Moreover, this V-shaped rebound is essentially a bottom V-rebound within a larger cycle and is not sufficient to directly drive a trend reversal, so it is highly likely that there will still be a new decline.

Subsequently, the market verified this logic. The price fell back from above 70,000, hitting around 66,000 at its lowest, with a total space of 4,000-5,000 points. Those friends who have been following my views should have been able to participate in this short position.

My thought process is:

If it's a downtrend, altcoins usually fall more and can be considered first;

If it's a rebound, Bitcoin's rebound strength is stronger;

If it is confirmed to be a large cycle bearish trend, I am more inclined to follow Bitcoin's trend short;

If it's a sideways fluctuation phase, shorting is more suitable for altcoins because altcoins usually "follow down but not up."

Recently, we have been operating according to this logic.

2. What to do next?

I will go straight to the conclusion:
In the upcoming period, I will be more inclined to look for bullish trading opportunities.

From a 4-hour structural perspective, this movement is likely to enter a similar "central adjustment" like the previous one. The previous adjustment lasted over 50 days; this time it may not last that long, but I believe it will enter a phase of adjustment.

We previously mentioned that a bottom V-rebound does not directly lead to a trend reversal; there will certainly be a new pullback. Currently, the new pullback has been completed, so we need to start considering new bullish layouts.

Moreover, typically before a significant drop, the market will first liquidate shorts; before a substantial rise, it will first liquidate longs. For example, when the price previously broke 94,000, it liquidated shorts, formed a trap for longs, and then fell. The market often operates this way.

So I believe we will enter an adjustment phase next, possibly lasting about a month.

3. Two bullish plans at the 1-hour level

Currently, the 1-hour structure is a standard descending channel, with a very obvious trend line resistance. This is already the 8th test.

First plan: Break above the channel

If the trend line is effectively broken, one can consider entering a short-term long.

But the target must be set at the breakout of 72,000. Regardless of the way you go long, the short-term target is 72,000.

Entry logic, break above the channel;

Use the previous phase low as a defensive point;

Aim for a break of 72,000.

However, I will make a judgment on this plan on-site; it may be done, or it may not.

Second plan: Pull back to the 0.5-0.618 range

The 0.5-0.618 pullback range of this rally is between 66,100-64,600.

If the price pulls back to this range and:

There is no effective breakthrough;

There are clear signs of stabilization and bottom formation;

It breaks above the range again;

Then I will consider gradually establishing long positions.

Why wait for a breakout of the range?

Because a breakout indicates that buying activity has started to actively enter, and we also have a clear defensive point - we can use the previous low as a stop loss basis.

If it merely drops into the range without a stabilization structure, I would not directly enter long, as there is no clear defensive logic.

I personally tend to favor the second plan.

The reason is simple:

If entering around 65,000, the target should look at least 71,000-72,000, with about 7,000 points of space, making the risk-reward ratio reasonable.

4. Regarding the assessment of the bottom region

I believe the true phase low is between 63,000-64,000.
The lower spikes will be viewed as liquidating leveraged positions and will not be included in structural assessment.

The range of 66,100-64,600 is about 1,000 points away from 63,000-64,000 and is a relatively ideal catch-up area.

5. What can be done currently?

Currently:

The trend line has not been broken;

The buying area below has not yet been reached;

Long conditions have not yet been established.

Therefore, there is no long strategy at the moment.

If you have short positions, you can continue to hold them.
If trying new shorts, you can place the defense point above 68,000-69,000.

The short-term expected target below is around 65,000.

Wait for the conditions to appear, then we can consider switching strategies.

Follow me, join the community, and let's progress together.

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