What to know : JPMorgan cut its December 2026 price target on Coinbase to $290 from $399 ahead of fourth-quarter earnings, citing weaker crypto trading volumes, softer prices and slower USDC growth. The bank still rates Coinbase Overweight, but projects a sharp sequential drop in earnings and EBITDA, even after factoring in a full quarter of revenue from the Deribit derivatives acquisition. Other firms, including Barclays and Compass Point, are more cautious or bearish, warning that retail trading, blockchain rewards and subscription and services revenue may miss expectations and remain closely tied to overall crypto prices.
The crypto market downturn has been particularly hard on leading American exchange Coinbase (COIN), which has seen its stock plunge more than 50% since bitcoin's early October record above $126,000, including a 27% decline in 2026 alone.
Attempting to catch up to that fast tumble, JPMorgan's Ken Worthington slashed his price target on COIN to $290 from $399 ahead of the company's fourth quarter earnings report coming after the close on Thursday.
Worthington remains a bull on the stock and his reduced target still suggests 75% upside from COIN's current price of $1655.
Worthington projects adjusted EBITDA of $734 million, down from $801 million in the third quarter. That would mark a sharp drop from prior quarters, driven mainly by lower trading volumes, weaker crypto prices and slower growth in USDC stablecoin balances, he said.
Worthington estimates spot crypto trading volume of $263 billion for the quarter. He also pointed to lower USDC in circulation, modeling stablecoin-related revenue of $312 million. Those headwinds were partially offset by a full quarter of contributions from Deribit, the crypto derivatives exchange Coinbase acquired in August.
Including Deribit, JPMorgan models total transaction revenue of $1.06 billion, with Deribit contributing about $117 million on an estimated $586 billion in trading volume. In the previous quarter, the exchange reported $1 billion in transaction revenue.
On the subscription and services side, the bank expects revenue of $670 million, below Coinbase’s prior guidance range of $710 million to $790 million, reflecting softer crypto prices, lower staking yields and slower USDC growth. Worthington also expects operating expenses to come in below guidance as the company reins in costs.
Other sell-siders weigh in
Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish said his estimates sit roughly 10% below consensus on adjusted EBITDA, driven by weaker retail trading and blockchain rewards revenue. “We are notably lower on retail trading revenues, based on read-throughs from Robinhood, and blockchain rewards revenues,” Budish wrote, adding that consensus estimates may not yet fully reflect publicly available volume data.
Barclays estimates Coinbase exchange volume of about $261 billion in the quarter. He said Robinhood’s (HOOD) reported retail crypto volumes, which have historically tracked closely with Coinbase’s, fell about 15% quarter over quarter.
Compass Point struck a more bearish tone. Analyst Ed Engel said he is negative on the stock into earnings, expecting disappointment in the subscription and services segment. “While investors place a premium multiple on COIN’s S&S segment, we expect 4Q results to affirm overall revenue remains tied to overall crypto prices,” Engel wrote. He also expects January trading revenue to reflect what he described as Coinbase’s weakest retail engagement since the third quarter of 2024.
Beyond the headline numbers, investors are likely to focus on commentary on trading activity early in 2026, the sustainability of USDC-related income, and whether newer initiatives, such as Deribit and Coinbase’s futures business, can meaningfully offset swings in spot crypto markets.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
