What to know : Bitcoin briefly fell to about $60,000 before rebounding near $69,000, but derivatives data suggest the market has not yet seen a true capitulation bottom. Futures on bitcoin are still trading at a modest premium of around 4% to spot prices, rather than the steep discounts that have historically marked bear-market lows. At the end of the 2022 bear market, 90-day bitcoin futures traded at a 9% discount to spot.
About a week ago, bitcoin dropped more than 10% in a day to around $60,000 before rebounding to $70,000 in recent days. The question is, did the slide mark "capitulation," when holders panic-sell at a loss, exhaust bearish pressure and set the stage for a new bull run?
The futures market says no, suggesting there's scope for another leg lower, according to Amberdata's director of derivatives, Greg Magadini.
"[The] lack of 'reaction' in the futures basis doesn’t make me confident we hit a true CAPITULATION moment," Magadini said in a market note Monday.
Magadini is referring to how futures typically trade in relation to the spot price during bearish trends and capitulation phases.
Futures are standardised derivative contracts to buy or sell an underlying asset, like bitcoin, at a set price on a future date. Traders use futures to bet on price direction, buying contracts when they expect a rally or shorting when they anticipate a decline, without actually owning the asset itself.
The price difference, or basis, between futures and spot markets reveals market sentiment and trader positioning. When futures trade at a significant premium to spot prices, it signals bullish optimism among investors. Conversely, a discount indicates bearish pressure.
Historically, bitcoin bear markets have tended to bottom out, with standard futures and perpetual futures trading at significant discounts to spot on major exchanges. These massive discounts represented capitulation and mark the final bear-market flush.
Last week, however, futures slipped into a discount only for a short time.
"Although the 90-day basis dropped lower on each leg down for BTC, these moves barely ranged -100bps. Today, fixed basis remains around 4% for BTC (inline with risk-free treasury yields)," Magadini said.
Compare that with the end of the 2022 bear market, when the 90-day futures traded at a 9% discount as the bitcoin price bottomed out below 20,000. So, if history is a guide, bitcoin could see another leg lower where futures traders capitulate, pushing prices into a steep discount relative to the spot price.
Bitcoin recently changed hands near $69,000, a 1% drop since midnight UTC, according to CoinDesk data.
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