As of December 25, 2025, 08:06 Beijing time, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending December 20 was recorded at 214,000, lower than the expected 224,000 and the previous value, indicating continued resilience in the U.S. labor market. Supported by macro data, U.S. stocks maintained high levels, while spot gold briefly fell below $4,460 per ounce after reaching a historical high of about $4,500 per ounce. Bitcoin fluctuated around high levels. In terms of funding, BlackRock transferred an additional 2,292 BTC and 9,976 ETH to Coinbase, contrasting with the net outflow of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs since December, leading to a shift in market sentiment to a neutral and cautious stance. In the short term, investors need to pay attention to subsequent U.S. employment and inflation data, daily net inflows and outflows of ETFs, and liquidity changes during the holiday period to determine whether Bitcoin will continue to maintain high-level box fluctuations or experience directional breakthroughs under liquidity contraction.
Core of the Event
Recently, cryptocurrencies and traditional assets have shown synchronized fluctuations at high levels, with U.S. macro data and institutional funding operations becoming key triggering factors. The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending December 20 was 214,000, lower than the market expectation of 224,000, indicating that layoffs remain moderate and the labor market continues to be in a tight balance. Against this backdrop, U.S. stock indices remained near historical highs, while gold fell below $4,460 per ounce after previously reaching a new high of about $4,500 per ounce, with a daily decline of approximately 0.59%.
At the same time, on-chain and exchange data monitored that BlackRock transferred an additional 2,292 BTC and 9,976 ETH to a Coinbase address. This operation occurred during a time when Bitcoin prices remained in a high range, and the Ethereum spot ETF had previously experienced a phase of net outflows. The large transfer of BTC and ETH to centralized exchanges has heightened market speculation about potential selling pressure, asset redistribution, or liquidity management operations, becoming one of the important variables in the current market dynamics.
Incentive Analysis: Intertwining of Macro, Funding, and Sentiment
On the news front, the initial jobless claims figure of 214,000 reinforces the baseline expectation of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy: on one hand, lower-than-expected unemployment claims are generally seen as a sign of economic resilience, supporting corporate profits and credit risk; on the other hand, the continued strength of the labor market also means that the Federal Reserve's room for further easing is constrained after already cutting rates by 175 basis points in this cycle. BlackRock strategists Amanda Lynam and Dominique Bly pointed out in a recent report that, given the current context of a 175 basis point rate cut, the room for further cuts in 2026 may be limited unless the labor market experiences a "sharp deterioration."
In terms of funding, there is a clear contrast between the annual pattern of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs and their performance in December. Throughout the year, BlackRock's IBIT and other spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted over $25 billion in net inflows, while long-term institutional holders like MicroStrategy accumulated about 3.2% of the Bitcoin supply, reflecting the recognition of "digital gold" narratives by allocation funds. However, entering December, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows on multiple days, with one trading day seeing a net outflow of about $142.2 million, equivalent to thousands of BTC leaving the market; KOL Phyrex mentioned that on the day before Christmas Eve, U.S. investors saw a net outflow of over 3,000 Bitcoins through spot ETFs, with about 1,800 coming from BlackRock's products, indicating a significant cooling of short-term trading interest.
It is important to emphasize that the current ETF fund flows show "December phase net outflows and weakening trading interest," rather than a complete exit of long-term allocation funds. On one hand, the annual net inflows of institutional products like IBIT remain high; on the other hand, Grayscale-related products have shown structural reductions and alternating buying in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, with some outflows being a natural result of profit-taking and arbitrage.
In terms of sentiment, KOL opinions present a complex state of "positive data + caution against trend changes." @Hippo believes that under the joint influence of U.S. stocks and macro data, Bitcoin is fluctuating at high levels, but the structural risk of a trend change at high levels needs to be heeded. Web3 trader @Mr. Jiang pointed out that the unemployment claims data itself is more bearish for the market; he maintains a long position in Bitcoin but emphasizes setting stop losses and warns that liquidity may further decline during the holiday period, with any sudden directional choice potentially being amplified.
Deep Logic: Strong Economy, Limited Easing, and Asset Rotation
From a macro perspective, the U.S. Q3 real GDP annualized growth rate reached 4.3%, echoing the latest initial jobless claims data of 214,000, creating a picture of "steady economic growth and a tight labor market." In such an environment, the market's understanding of the Federal Reserve is gradually shifting from a "liquidity-driven" paradigm to one where "structural rates are close to neutral," with the game of rate cuts being more about marginal adjustments rather than directional reversals.
The judgment made by institutions like BlackRock that "further rate cuts in 2026 may be limited" has led to subtle changes in the pricing logic of risk assets: the early bull market was driven by "expectations of easing driving valuation expansion," gradually transitioning to "re-pricing driven by profits and asset structure." For crypto assets, Bitcoin and Ethereum are transitioning from "high-elasticity monetary easing trades" to "being included in multi-asset portfolios, priced alongside U.S. stocks and gold" as structural assets.
In terms of major asset rotation, gold has significantly outperformed Bitcoin over the past year. Institutions like Matrixport analyze that during risk-off cycles, gold's traditional attributes and buying from central banks and sovereign institutions make its returns relatively stronger, with gold's excess returns relative to Bitcoin approaching 80% over the past year. However, at the same time, interest from BlackRock ETFs, structured notes, and sovereign wealth funds in Bitcoin has increased, intensifying the competition between "digital gold" and physical gold in official reserve assets.
On-chain data shows that BlackRock has recently increased and adjusted its holdings of BTC and ETH multiple times, such as adding 4,534 ETH and 45 BTC on December 23, along with the transfer of 9,976 ETH and 2,292 BTC to Coinbase, indicating dynamic management of positions over different time windows. These large on-chain transfers and changes in ETF holdings lead the market to understand institutional behavior more from the perspective of "asset portfolio and liquidity management," rather than simply interpreting it as one-sided accumulation or reduction.
Bull-Bear Game: Long-Term Institutionalization vs. Short-Term Outflows
The core divergence of forces between bulls and bears currently focuses on three levels: macro path, funding structure, and custody model.
On the bullish side, supporters emphasize several key points: first, a strong economy and limited rate cuts do not necessarily spell bad news for Bitcoin; rather, they imply that systemic crisis risks are temporarily manageable, favoring high valuations for risk assets; second, data showing over $25 billion in net inflows into IBIT this year and MicroStrategy holding 3.2% of Bitcoin supply indicate that long-term institutional allocations remain robust; third, Bitcoin's market share has rebounded from about 57% to 59.27% since September 2025, showing that funds are flowing back from high-risk altcoins to "main assets," reinforcing its "digital gold" positioning.
The bearish perspective, however, focuses more on short-term dynamics and vulnerabilities: first, since December, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows on multiple days, with over 3,000 BTC flowing out in a single day reinforcing the impression of "traditional investors' short-term interest declining"; second, liquidity has significantly contracted during the holidays, and any large transfers (such as BlackRock's 2,292 BTC and 9,976 ETH to Coinbase) could be interpreted by the market as potential selling pressure; third, gold, U.S. stocks, and Bitcoin are all at high levels, and historically, such "multi-asset resonance at high levels" often accompanies phase corrections and increased volatility.
The direct result of the bull-bear confrontation is that prices are repeatedly traded within a high-level box, with ETF outflows and long-term institutional accumulation forming a typical pattern of "long-term funds absorbing short-term exits," with directional choices postponed to larger macro and liquidity event nodes.
In terms of the emotional radiation effect, KOL Phyrex has repeatedly mentioned that "traditional investors' interest in cryptocurrencies is gradually decreasing, and trading interest is also declining." This narrative is easily reinforced during periods of short-term ETF net outflows and declining trading volumes; however, from the perspective of annual holdings and the growth of structured products, this reflects more of a "decrease in trading frequency and risk appetite," rather than a complete retreat of long-term allocation willingness.
Outlook: Key Observation Points in High-Level Fluctuations
In the short term (the next 1-4 weeks), the market will continue to seek a balance between holiday liquidity and macro data. If the subsequent employment and inflation data remain in a "stronger than expected but not extreme" range similar to the initial jobless claims of 214,000, and no unexpected credit or geopolitical black swan events occur, Bitcoin is more likely to maintain fluctuations within the current high-level box, with ETFs possibly continuing a tug-of-war state of slight net outflows or inflows, rather than a one-sided sell-off. Conversely, if employment or growth data suddenly shows significant weakness, market expectations for the 2026 policy path may quickly switch from "limited rate cuts" to "reopening easing space," reigniting risk appetite for long-duration risk assets, with high-beta Bitcoin and Ethereum becoming sensitive beneficiaries.
During this phase, the scale of daily net inflows and outflows of ETFs, on-chain whale transfers, and derivatives funding rates will be three key indicators to observe changes in bull-bear forces. If ETFs see consecutive days of large net inflows or outflows, it could break the current balance; if large transfers similar to BlackRock's 2,292 BTC and 9,976 ETH occur again on-chain, it will also become an amplifier of sentiment; at the same time, if the funding rates in the contract market remain significantly positive or negative for an extended period, it will expose the accumulation of leverage in a single direction, raising liquidation risks.
In the medium term (the next 3-6 months), the relative performance of Bitcoin, gold, and U.S. stocks will highly depend on the macro scenario: in a "soft landing + moderate easing" scenario, U.S. stocks and Bitcoin are more likely to outperform, while gold returns to its conventional allocation asset in the portfolio; in a "re-inflation or inflation rebound" scenario, gold and Bitcoin may jointly gain a hedging premium, but traditional institutions and sovereign funds tend to prioritize increasing their allocation to gold, making gold more favored in the short term; if there is a "hard landing/recession concerns magnified," funds often first concentrate on U.S. Treasuries and gold, with Bitcoin's performance depending on the liquidity supply and credit risk perception at that time, being viewed as either a "high-risk asset" or an "alternative safe-haven asset."
On a longer-term structural trend, the crypto market is moving towards a clear "dual-track structure": one track is represented by ETFs, custodial institutions, and structured notes, likely carrying over 90% of on-site liquidity; the other track is represented by cold wallets, self-custody wallets, and decentralized protocols, accommodating more users and funds that are highly sensitive to "asset sovereignty." Rocky reminds us through the historical event of the U.S. Executive Order 6102 in 1933, which confiscated gold, that if most Bitcoin is concentrated in centralized custody and ETFs, any extreme changes in the regulatory environment in the future will amplify the importance of self-controlling private keys.
For investors, while tracking macro data and institutional fund flows in terms of price and liquidity, retaining a certain proportion of self-custody allocation in terms of custody choices may be a realistic compromise between "convenience and sovereign control."
In the current backdrop of a strong economy, limited easing, and high-level multi-asset resonance, the narrative around Bitcoin is gradually transitioning from "anti-system asset" to "systemic asset, candidate for digital gold." Both bulls and bears are waiting for new macro signals and directions of fund flows to provide clearer answers, and during this high-level tug-of-war period, data and discipline are often more important than sentiment.
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