Event Review 🔎

At 11:19, the Bank of Japan suddenly announced an increase in the benchmark interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, reaching a nearly 30-year high. This policy move instantly conveyed a signal of tightening global liquidity. Against this backdrop, investors began to adjust their positions, with some funds seeking safe-haven opportunities through asset reallocation, leading to a rapid influx of capital into the digital asset market. In particular, ETH exhibited a strong buying frenzy within just a few minutes, soaring from $2842 to $2918, and then further climbing to $2924. After a significant surge, the market corrected to around $2906.35 by 12:00, showing signs of consolidation.

Timeline ⏰

• 11:19 – The Bank of Japan announces a 25 basis point interest rate hike, raising the benchmark rate to 0.75%, triggering expectations of global liquidity tightening.
• 11:21 – The market reacts swiftly, with ETH's price skyrocketing from about $2842 to $2918 within 10 minutes, an increase of 2.66%.
• 11:21 to 11:52 – ETH's price continues to rise steadily, climbing from around $2909 to $2924, indicating sustained institutional inflow.
• 12:00 – After rapid fluctuations, the price corrects to about $2906.35, entering a short-term consolidation phase.

Reason Analysis 🧐

The sharp volatility in ETH is primarily attributed to two core factors:

1. Impact of the Bank of Japan's Interest Rate Hike
   The 25 basis point increase signals tightening liquidity and a contraction in funds. Under the pressure of rising global funding costs, some capital began to withdraw from traditional assets and reallocate to digital assets as a safe-haven tool, directly catalyzing ETH's strong short-term rebound.

2. International Macroeconomics and Institutional Reallocation
   Meanwhile, the moderate CPI data from the U.S. and positive signals from regulators regarding the digital asset sector improved the overall market atmosphere. Institutional funds actively repositioned in the global macro environment, reallocating some assets to the cryptocurrency market, further boosting ETH's buying enthusiasm.

Technical Analysis 📈

Based on the 45-minute K-line data of Binance's USDT perpetual contract, the technical analysis of the ETH/USDT trading pair shows:

• Moving Average System

• EMA10 crosses above EMA20, forming a golden cross, indicating an enhanced bullish signal in the medium term;

• However, the price remains below the EMA120 moving average, suggesting that long-term trends still carry downside risks.

• Momentum and Oscillation Indicators

• The MACD indicator crosses above the zero line, indicating that upward momentum is building;

• The RSI breaks through the upward trend line, confirming the strengthening of short-term buying power;

• The KDJ indicator converges, suggesting potential oscillation adjustments in the short term;

• OBV shifts from positive to negative, indicating a risk of divergence in market sentiment.

• Trading Volume and Pattern Signals

• Trading volume surged by 135.25%, accompanying the price increase, reflecting active buying;

• Statistics show that approximately $8 million in liquidations occurred across the network in the last hour, with short positions accounting for 86%, but a net inflow of about $20 million indicates that major funds are actively positioning;

• The "Red Three Soldiers" pattern has appeared multiple times, providing pattern support for continuous buying.

Overall, short-term technical indicators convey a clear buying signal, but long-term moving averages still lean bearish, indicating that there are risks of adjustments in future trends.

Market Outlook 🔮

After a fierce surge, ETH has entered a consolidation phase in the short term. Future trends will be primarily influenced by the following factors:

• If ETH can stabilize above the key support level around $2900 and maintain active trading volume, it is likely to continue attracting institutional funds, driving further upward movement;
• However, if the price falls below the long-term moving average (such as EMA120), it may trigger profit-taking and position adjustments, increasing volatility risks in the short term;
• The direction of global monetary policy and macroeconomic data will continue to significantly impact market sentiment, and the intensity of institutional reallocation may adjust asset configurations further based on news developments.

In summary, the current ETH market is showing a strong short-term rebound under the dual influence of macro interest rate hikes and capital reallocation, but investors still need to pay attention to long-term moving average support and changes in overall market sentiment, ensuring risk management and being flexible in following up on opportunities.

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