It has already been the fourth day, during which for three days $BTC has either surged towards or is about to hit $90,000 before retreating back to around $85,000. Especially today, the U.S. stock market has performed quite well, with the S&P and Nasdaq almost recovering from yesterday's decline, but Bitcoin still remains fluctuating around $85,000, and investor sentiment is really poor.

If yesterday's decline in tech stocks, which dragged down Bitcoin, was caused by Oracle, then today it should purely be an issue of investor sentiment. At least from the ETF data, more investors have shifted from the cryptocurrency sector to U.S. stocks. However, I still believe that in the larger trend, BTC and tech stocks have a high correlation, and even if there is a short-term deviation, it should revert back.

Friday is the date for Japan's interest rate hike, and the U.S. stock market has not shown signs of risk aversion. As mentioned before, investors have fully anticipated this rate hike, and the actual result will not cause significant changes in the market. I wonder if our friends in the U.S. are still somewhat worried, but after Japan's rate hike, it will be the Christmas market. The low liquidity during Christmas is like a holiday; as long as there are no unexpected issues, it should be fine.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the turnover rate continues to decrease. Investors have gradually become accustomed to BTC falling to this price, which also indicates that investors who were panicking about the price drop have mostly exited. Short-term investors have also started to significantly reduce their positions. If this situation continues for a while and stabilizes, we will officially enter the garbage time.

Garbage time refers to BTC maintaining slight fluctuations daily. Although the fluctuation amplitude increases from time to time, it will still return to the fluctuation range, remaining within this range for a long time, while trading volume significantly shrinks. Both 2023 and 2024 have experienced such garbage time.

From the current perspective, it already resembles a re-establishment of the bottom before garbage time, feeling like it is between $83,000 and $88,000. However, unlike previous garbage times, the investors who are currently stuck at high positions remain very calm, having already lost over $20,000, but this group of investors has not shown panic selling, and the chip structure remains very stable.

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