Looking at the dot plot, the expected interest rate for 2026 is 3.125%, currently at 3.75%, which suggests an expectation of two rate cuts. In other words, the dot plot predicts a 50 basis point cut in 2026, and the dot plot for 2027 is also 3.125%. Of course, this is a bit far off, so it doesn't matter much.

Overall, this dot plot is somewhat better than the one released in September. When it was announced in September, the expectation was for one rate cut in 2026; now it is two. Moreover, from the dot plot, the consistency for a rate cut in December is quite high.

There is significant divergence for 2026, but some interesting phenomena have emerged. One committee member hopes for a 125 basis point cut, another for a 100 basis point cut, and two others for a 75 basis point cut. These four clearly belong to the dovish camp. While we cannot directly confirm whether they belong to the future Trump nomination faction, this dovish tendency is highly consistent with the new government's emphasis on growth.

A new chair will take office in May, and if new board members are added, the influence of the dovish camp may increase in the second half of the year. At that time, the probability of further accelerating rate cuts in the second half of 2026 will significantly rise.

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