Middle East tensions appeared to escalate June 23 after the commander of the Iranian military vowed to directly attack U.S. interests as retaliation for President Donald Trump’s decision to strike the country’s nuclear sites. Maj. Gen. Abdolrahim Mousavi’s stark warning came swiftly on the heels of the Iranian president’s vows to exact a lawful and decisive response to the bombing of key nuclear sites in Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz by American B-2 bombers.

This threat adds to existing concerns over reported Iranian intentions to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a critical and narrow shipping channel through which approximately one-fifth of the world’s global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade transits daily. The potential for such a disruption, which could severely impact international energy markets, has been keenly watched by analysts.

As of this writing, the predictions marketplace Polymarket, a platform reflecting collective market sentiment, indicated the odds of Iran closing this vital waterway before July stood at 26%, a significant decline from the 52% probability observed just 24 hours prior. If carried out, both actions risk plunging the region into a deeper crisis that would see oil prices spike, rising inflation and ultimately global recession.

Initially, following confirmation of the strike, bitcoin plunged, dropping below the $100,000 mark for the first time in 46 days to $98,115. However, a few hours later the top cryptocurrency was back above $100,000. According to an analyst at Bitunix, the pullback may be an indication that investors still see BTC and cryptocurrencies as safe haven assets.

“The escalating Middle East conflict could intensify safe-haven demand, and cryptocurrencies may emerge as a preferred refuge due to their portability and ease of transfer compared to gold. If the situation deteriorates further, markets may reprice safe-haven assets. Geopolitical escalation could also drive BTC toward new all-time highs, though investors must be cautious of increased volatility and potential policy interventions,” the analyst stated.

According to the analyst, the crypto market’s sharp drop after the U.S. strikes reflects panic and long-position liquidations and should not be seen to indicate a shift in investor sentiment away from crypto. To shield themselves from sharp market movements, the analyst advised investors to maintain rational stop-loss strategies and risk control measures. In addition, investors should monitor developments closely and adjust portfolio allocations accordingly.

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