BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is known for making bold and sometimes controversial Bitcoin price predictions, stating that he won't be troubled even if he predicts incorrectly.

Written by: Ciaran Lyons, Cointelegraph

Translated by: Shaw, Golden Finance

BitMEX co-founder and Bitcoin billionaire Arthur Hayes is known for making bold and sometimes controversial Bitcoin price predictions, stating that he won't be troubled even if he predicts incorrectly.

When asked if he worries that his Bitcoin predictions might provoke negative reactions, he said, "It's no big deal."

Hayes is unconcerned about his predictions, whether right or wrong

Arthur Hayes candidly admits that most of his price predictions are inaccurate. "I got it wrong, and most of them were wrong," he said with a laugh. "I don't know why people hesitate about this; in the end, it really doesn't matter." He added, "If you're generally correct, then it's fine."

Hayes is straightforward about his predictions and does not hide them, regardless of their accuracy. Previously, Arthur Hayes made a short-term bearish prediction for Bitcoin, linking it to the depreciation of the yen. However, the situation that weekend did not unfold as he expected, and Bitcoin remained strong. To be fair, he later admitted his mistake on X, stating, "I was wrong."

Arthur Hayes once said, "It's time to trade some dogshit meme coins." Similarly, last March, Hayes predicted that Bitcoin would rise to $110,000 before retesting $76,500. But just a month later, on April 9, Bitcoin fell to $76,500.

Of course, Hayes has also had accurate predictions. Last December, he predicted a downturn in the cryptocurrency market and stated that a "vicious sell-off" would occur after Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20, which turned out to be correct.

Perhaps over the years, this Bitcoin veteran, who grew up in New York, has developed a super-secret method for determining his price targets at the end of each year: "Choose integers that humans like."

Confident that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by 2025

His latest prediction is that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of this year, and he is confident that Bitcoin will not drop below $70,000 in the process.

He stated, "Right now, I really don't see any major risk-averse events that could scare the market; in the short term, I don't see people selling risk assets causing Bitcoin to drop to those levels again." That said, Hayes does not agree with some Bitcoin supporters who believe Bitcoin could rise to $1 million by the end of this year. He said, "I think that will happen before the end of 2028, but it won't happen this year."

However, Arthur Hayes is not in a hurry to make any short-term predictions. "I don't know; we'll see. It really depends on the specifics," he said. "If there's a situation where everyone thinks the same way, and my thoughts are different, I usually try to make predictions like that," he said.

Unlike most who aspire to be trading geniuses, Hayes is indeed experienced. He graduated from the University of Pennsylvania in 2008 with a degree in economics. Just six years later, in 2014, at the age of 28, he co-founded the cryptocurrency derivatives giant BitMEX with Ben Delo and Samuel Reed.

Reflecting on his days under house arrest

In 2020, after the U.S. Department of Justice charged Arthur Hayes, Ben Delo, Samuel Reed, and Gregory Dwyer with violating the Bank Secrecy Act, Hayes resigned from BitMEX.

Arthur Hayes and Ben Delo pleaded guilty in February 2022, admitting that they "willfully failed to establish, implement, and maintain an anti-money laundering program at the exchange." He was ultimately placed under house arrest for six months, confined to his home. It was a tough time, but Hayes also saw the positive side.

"Being stuck in a place you can't leave for six months was terrible, but I got to Miami; thank God it wasn't prison," Hayes said with a smile.

In March of this year, President Donald Trump pardoned four former BitMEX executives.

Despite going through this series of legal troubles, Arthur Hayes remains one of the most respected Bitcoin supporters in the world. At cryptocurrency conferences, he is regarded as a star, and even though his predictions are sometimes accurate and sometimes not, people still take his price forecasts seriously.

Hayes is able to make bold predictions because, unlike many cryptocurrency executives who stick to safe forecasts, he is a billionaire living life on his own terms. This has been his plan all along.

"I've always been obsessed with this game, trying to take control of my time," he said. Hayes admits that his current life is quite comfortable. "I work out for two or three hours a day, read a lot of books, and then, you know, occasionally write something," he stated.

Hayes says he enjoys living a luxurious life. "I know I'm happy because I can play tennis when I want to, ski when I want to, and things like that," he added. "It really has nothing to do with how much Bitcoin I have or how much cash is in my bank account or wallet. The real question is, if I want to, can I go help my friends pay for things or go ski for six months?"

Will the U.S. government really buy Bitcoin?

When Hayes was asked about his prediction regarding the U.S. government actually purchasing Bitcoin for its strategic reserves, he said, "I think the probability is only 1%."

He added, "I still believe they won't sell the 200,000 Bitcoins they have seized, but I don't think the U.S. government will print money to buy Bitcoin."

Hayes stated that even if other countries adopt Bitcoin reserves, the 200,000 BTC is already "worth a lot." Therefore, from the U.S. perspective, it may not trigger much FOMO (fear of missing out) compared to other countries.

"Other countries, including China, may also have similar amounts of Bitcoin. I think it's more likely that countries will mine Bitcoin rather than print money and then use the printed money to buy Bitcoin," he said.

He said, "If a country really generates income, the situation is a bit different."

Surprisingly, Hayes has never advocated for a U.S. Bitcoin reserve. On May 1, he stated in an interview that he "is not very interested in the whole strategic reserve situation." At that time, he said it was hard to imagine any "legitimately elected" politician openly announcing a government plan to print money to buy Bitcoin.

Bitcoin financial companies will become "less important"

Arthur Hayes also shared his predictions about Bitcoin financial companies, speculating that new companies will become increasingly unimportant. Hayes said, "I think as these trades become more saturated, they will become less important."

He explained, "Each of these financial companies, at least if it is in a market that already has financial companies, will not perform as well, but it will be even more difficult to generate non-dilutive Bitcoin accumulation."

Hayes said that most financial companies will conduct equity offerings, reducing the percentage of ownership per share, and then use the proceeds to buy Bitcoin, which is a "very dilutive strategy." "This practice is hard to replicate continuously, especially in a nearly saturated market like the U.S.; maybe in other markets without strategy, you can do it a few times," he said.

Bitcoin ETFs will surpass Bitcoin financial companies

Arthur Hayes is more optimistic about spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). However, he did not predict how much money would flow into ETFs by the end of this year.

Hayes stated, "I think it will continue to flow in because for anyone with traditional assets, this is the easiest way to invest in cryptocurrency. They don't have to worry about custody; it's a one-to-one replication."

He predicts that because fund managers trust spot Bitcoin ETFs and more regulators and banks allow funds to invest in these ETFs, they will "clearly siphon off" capital from Bitcoin financial companies. He said, "As retail investors, they will wonder if this is just another fool paying a premium to buy Bitcoin, which is the simplest thing."

What is the biggest unknown for Bitcoin?

When asked if he thinks there are risks to Bitcoin's price in the near term, Arthur Hayes pointed out that global conflicts could erupt. But if a full-scale world war breaks out, he is uncertain whether prices would rise or fall. Hayes said, "Bitcoin's performance could be very good or very bad. Who knows what will happen in that situation?"

He dismisses the common concern among many Bitcoin users that quantum computing could undermine Bitcoin's security. He said, "I think too many people are focused on this, but I don't think it will ultimately be a problem for Bitcoin."

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