🚀 Event Review

This afternoon, the price of Ethereum (ETH) experienced a sharp fluctuation. Starting around 19:00, the price remained at approximately $2671. Due to the continuous fermentation of macroeconomic and regulatory news, combined with market leverage position adjustments triggering a chain of liquidations, the price dropped by more than 6.5% in just one hour. At certain times, the price even touched a low of $2497, before slightly rebounding to around $2520, indicating that the market began to attempt stabilization after intense selling pressure.

⏱️ Timeline

• 19:00: ETH price fluctuated around $2671, with some news suggesting that the risks of high leverage positions were beginning to emerge.
• 19:00–19:46: Within 46 minutes, the ETH price plummeted from $2671 to $2581, a drop of about 3.35%, as technical liquidations gradually unfolded.
• 19:22: Monitoring showed ETH breaking below the key support level of $2650, warning of intensified selling.
• 19:46: Major macro news broke—Trump announced plans to impose tariffs of up to 50% on EU goods starting June 1, along with a 25% tariff on certain products (like iPhones), instantly triggering global risk aversion.
• 19:47: Affected by macro news and market panic, ETH further declined, breaking below $2600, reporting around $2595.
• 20:00: ETH price fell below the $2550 mark, with a transaction price of about $2545, indicating rapid capital withdrawal.
• 20:15: Statistics showed a cumulative drop of 6.50% since 19:00, with the price briefly touching $2497 before rebounding, currently stabilizing around $2520.42.

💼 Reason Analysis

The sharp decline in ETH prices can be attributed to several key factors:

• Macroeconomic and Regulatory Uncertainty: Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on the EU and a 25% tariff on certain products intensified global trade friction and policy uncertainty, raising market risk aversion. The combination of regulatory and trade news led investors to reassess the risks of digital assets, prompting some capital to exit rapidly.
• Leverage Position Adjustments Triggering Chain Liquidations: High leverage trading is prevalent in the market, and when negative factors emerge, related short positions are quickly liquidated, triggering technical liquidations that exacerbate price declines and selling pressure.
• Panic Selling: The extreme surge in trading volume and large order data indicate that the market is experiencing panic selling driven by significant net capital outflows, further amplifying price volatility risks.

📊 Technical Analysis

Based on Binance USDT perpetual contract ETH/USDT 45-minute candlestick data, from a technical perspective:

• KDJ & RSI: The KDJ indicator is currently in the oversold zone, while the RSI also shows oversold conditions, suggesting a potential rebound signal in the short term, but current market sentiment remains very fragile.
• OBV Indicator: OBV continues to decline, indicating that selling pressure is dominant, with main capital accelerating outflows.
• Trading Volume Data: Trading volume surged by 532.81%, with both price and volume declining, indicating panic selling, and the current trading volume far exceeds the 10-day average, suggesting unusually high market activity, mostly driven by selling sentiment.
• Moving Average Arrangement: MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all in a bearish arrangement, with prices below the EMA5, 10, 20, 50, and 120 moving averages, showing a clear downward trend in the short term; although the mid to long-term EMA arrangement is relatively flat, short-term technical resistance is evident.
• MACD Analysis: The MACD histogram continues to decrease, indicating that downward momentum is strengthening, and short-term rebounds have yet to gain sufficient support.

🔮 Market Outlook

For future market trends, here are some insights and suggestions:

• Short-term Pressure and Support Tests: The current price range mainly hovers between $2500 and $2600. If selling pressure cannot be effectively absorbed, the lower support level may continue to be tested, and investors need to closely monitor whether the price can stabilize within this range.
• Potential Rebound Signals: Although the current decline is significant, the oversold status of the KDJ and RSI indicators suggests a possible short-term rebound. If trading volume begins to decline and buying gradually enters, prices may experience a corrective rebound.
• Macroeconomic Risks Persist: Global trade friction and regulatory policy uncertainties remain market risks. It is advisable for investors to remain cautious, appropriately reduce positions or adjust holdings to guard against systemic risks.
• Technical Adjustment Window: From a technical chart perspective, some indicators are on the verge of seeking a reversal, but against the backdrop of a bearish moving average arrangement, short to mid-term bearish sentiment is more pronounced. Therefore, it is recommended to monitor whether the next phase of trading volume shows significant contraction and whether moving averages exhibit notable flattening, as important signals for market turning points.

In summary, the sharp volatility of Ethereum is both a market risk aversion response triggered by macro news and policy uncertainty, as well as a technical decline caused by chain liquidations of high leverage positions. Whether the market can achieve an effective rebound in the future will require close attention to changes in macro policies, capital flows, and whether technical indicators confirm reversal signals. Investors must remain cautious during this phase and manage risks and position adjustments effectively.

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