How long can this upward momentum last? What significance does the latest tariff agreement between the US and the UK hold?

HTX DeepThink is a dedicated insight column by Huobi HTX, focusing on global macro trends, core economic data, and hot topics in the crypto industry, injecting new thinking power into the market, and helping readers "find order in chaos" in the unpredictable crypto world.

In last week's HTX DeepThink column, HTX Research Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) combined macro data to predict a liquidity window might appear in early May, with funds flowing back into the crypto market; on the evening of May 8, Bitcoin returned to $100,000 after three months, and Ethereum also broke through the $2,000 mark, confirming the analysts' judgment. How long can this upward momentum last? What significance does the latest tariff agreement between the US and the UK hold? In this special extended edition of HTX DeepThink, Chloe will provide new interpretations.

The Symbolic Significance of New Hampshire and Texas Promoting "Bitcoin National Strategic Reserves" Legislation

On May 7, New Hampshire officially became the first state in the US to pass a Bitcoin strategic reserve bill, authorizing the state treasury to purchase BTC through spot ETFs or market purchases. The Texas SB 21 bill has completed all committee reviews and is expected to enter the final vote in the next three weeks. This represents Bitcoin being officially included in the perspective of "sovereign assets," possessing a partial status as a substitute for government bonds and gold; at the same time, the BTC purchasing mechanism led by local governments may replicate in 10-15 Republican states, providing medium to long-term buying support for spot ETFs and on-chain markets.

This is a critical market signal—even if the federal level remains cautious, the state level has already initiated the institutional engineering of BTC reserves.

The US-UK Tariff Agreement Releases a "De-risking" Signal

On May 8, the US and the UK reached a breakthrough agreement on trade tariffs, including the UK opening agricultural tariffs to the US in exchange for a reduction in US auto tariffs; tariffs on UK steel and aluminum exports to the US were reduced to 0%; the US retains a 10% "reciprocal tariff" framework on imports from the UK, although the UK has a trade deficit with the US, the actual economic driving significance of this agreement is not substantial, but it releases some easing space. US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo also expressed her hope that the next trade agreement announced would be from a major country in Asia, indicating that the Trump administration is willing to release structural positives in trade.

Bitcoin's Market Pricing Structure is Transitioning from "Volatile Trading Logic" to "Structural Capital Allocation Logic"

As easing signals are gradually released from the policy side, the capital flow structure of Bitcoin has also undergone profound changes. In the past three weeks, the net inflow of the US spot Bitcoin ETF reached $5.3 billion, setting a single-season peak since its launch. This inflow is not driven by retail but is primarily led by institutional actions such as the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, the Swiss National Bank increasing its holdings in MicroStrategy stocks, and BlackRock ETF positions rising. This marks a transition in Bitcoin's market pricing structure from "volatile trading logic" to "structural capital allocation logic." In this process, BTC is no longer an appendage of risk assets but is gradually establishing its own independent capital flow ecology, becoming a "supranational asset" in the eyes of some investors, positioned between gold and US Treasury bonds.

Currently, there are no signs of a "frenzied surge" in the market; Bitcoin options implied volatility (IV) remains stable at 50% to 55%, far below the 80% or more commonly seen at historical bull market peaks; CME Bitcoin futures open interest is about $14.8 billion, lower than the $20 billion peak when Trump was elected in 2020; the 10-year US Treasury yield has repeatedly tested 4.60% without success, currently maintaining around 4.40%. Overall, as long as the US Treasury yield does not rise above 4.8% again and ETF funds continue to flow in, Bitcoin is expected to oscillate and consolidate between $105,000 and $115,000, waiting for the next breakthrough opportunity.

Potential Risks: US-China and US-EU Trade Negotiations May Escalate Tariff Wars

However, caution is needed regarding the risk that trade negotiations between the US and China, as well as between the US and EU, may not go smoothly. US President Trump has made it clear that he will not lower the 145% high tariffs imposed on China to restart trade negotiations. Additionally, EU Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Valdis Dombrovskis stated that if negotiations between the EU and the US on tariffs fail, the EU will be prepared to take retaliatory measures to rebalance bilateral trade relations. The EU is ready to impose tariffs on US goods worth about €100 billion. These potential escalations in trade friction could negatively impact global market sentiment, thereby putting pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.

“HTX DeepThink: Finding Order in Chaos”

Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation for investment products.

About HTX Research

HTX Research is the exclusive research department under HTX Group, responsible for in-depth analysis across a wide range of areas including cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends, writing comprehensive reports, and providing professional assessments. HTX Research is committed to providing data-driven insights and strategic foresight, playing a key role in shaping industry perspectives and supporting informed decision-making in the digital asset space. With rigorous research methods and cutting-edge data analysis, HTX Research consistently stands at the forefront of innovation, leading the development of industry thought and promoting a deeper understanding of the ever-changing market dynamics.

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