China is a full-industry-chain country, and retail investors have a big influence here. That’s why using the ChiNext Index to observe tech bubble cycles is a pretty solid approach. As shown in the chart, surprisingly, it’s quite regular—comparable to the $BTC cycle—maintaining roughly a five-year loop, with about half the time being a bear market and the other half a bull market. We’re currently in the third cycle. In the last full cycle, the index rose by 201.8%, then dropped by 58.5%. While the numbers seem drastically different, a basic fact is that after a 50% drop, you need a 100% rise just to get back to where you started. So over five years, the returns barely beat Yu’e Bao . This cycle has only dropped 20% so far. One thing to note, though, is that the hype themes in each cycle tend to differ, and most themes only get hyped for one cycle. So, how long will it take to break even if you’re stuck? If you’re holding the index, the answer might be 5 years. If you’re holding individual stocks, the answer might be… a lifetime .