FED DECISION: WHAT TO WATCH The Fed is expected to keep rates at 3.5%-3.75%, but markets still see a roughly one-in-three chance of a surprise hike. The focus is on Chair Kevin Warsh's message as higher oil prices fuel inflation concerns despite softer June CPI. Morgan Stanley expects no hikes this year, while BofA believes Warsh could begin raising rates as soon as September.(*Walter Bloomberg)