Written before the early morning session of the council meeting At 2:00 am Beijing time on July 30th, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting for this month will be held. This interest rate forecast is the most conflicted one I have felt since looking at the macro since 2022. In the past, there has been a relatively clear intention to adjust interest rates at this time. Occasionally, when there are slightly unexpected situations, the Federal Reserve will also come out through Nick to vent. But this time there is a clear team in the market regarding whether there will be a rate hike, and even the probability of predicting a possible rate hike is now close to 30%. However, from my personal perspective, the main theme should be that there will not be a rate hike. One reason is that the inflation data in June has decreased. Although oil prices have risen now, the time is still short. It is impossible for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates with a defensive approach when inflation decreases. It should be noted that during Powell's tenure in March and April, inflation and oil prices were higher, but the expectation of war was even more brutal. Many institutions expected WTI to reach $150 by the end of the year, but on this basis, the Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates. This is the second reason. So if we don't raise interest rates, it should be more favorable for the market. I even believe that the decline in the US stock market yesterday and today is a hedge against the "interest rate hike". So, I am so certain that if we don't raise interest rates, should we go long? My choice is not, even if I don't think there will be a rate hike, I won't go long in the stock market. If I have to go long, I would probably raise the price of Bitcoin: Native from $63000 to $63500 and $64000. After all, holding Bitcoin spot is not hot for me. I am still not very familiar with stocks. What I am currently doing is only oil and Hynix, not to mention oil. If we really raise interest rates, it will only benefit me from shorting oil without harm, while Hynix should have closed my position before the interest rate meeting. I personally strongly advise against opening an order in an environment of high volatility and uncertainty, such as an interest rate meeting. @Gate Crypto、 US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, South Korean stocks, gold CFD、 Predicting one-stop trading in the market