Borrowing Guilin bro's post, I'll add my two cents here. Straight to the conclusion: 1️⃣ First, let's talk about tomorrow's early morning FOMC meeting. Since Waller has been emphasizing no forward guidance, CME shows about a 32% probability of a rate hike tomorrow. The market is worried about a surprise hike, so ahead of the meeting, the market—especially U.S. stocks—is in risk-off mode. If there really is a rate hike, the market will look pretty ugly. Personally, I think it's more likely they'll keep rates unchanged. After all, June's inflation was trending downward, and July's oil prices (WTI) were mostly below $90. Then Waller will likely reiterate the "no forward guidance" stance, continue to monitor data, and observe geopolitical developments. This way, the new game will shift to September. Short-term market fears will ease, and we might see a small rebound in risk markets (U.S. stock speculation + $BTC). 2️⃣ Next, oil prices. This is another key driver for the market. Last night, oil dipped below $80, and then this morning's news: "Unofficial ceasefire falls apart, attacks resume." Oil prices (WTI) bounced back to around $82.5. Concerned whether Trump might use the temporary calm from the FOMC meeting to release some relief, only to start a new round of action after the meeting? This is why I mentioned last night that for now, I'm holding onto my previous positions around the $80-$82 range without making any moves. Let's wait and see. Even if Trump initiates a new round of action post-FOMC, it will still likely fall within the market's expected framework of "fighting while negotiating." July has only two days left, and oil prices this month have mostly stayed below $90. I believe the CPI data for July, released in August, shouldn't look too bad. Then it'll depend on how August's geopolitical situation unfolds. 3️⃣ Lastly, about my own trades. Currently, I'm holding short positions on oil prices and SPCX. Haven't made any other moves for now. A word of advice: try not to gamble on this FOMC meeting. If you really want to play, maybe try trading $BTC's volatility waves. DYOR.