时光预言机i
时光预言机i|Jul 28, 2026 06:23
The main reason is that domestic DUV machines are directly impacting the market, raising concerns that China's memory production capacity (especially CXMT) will be released faster, intensifying global supply and driving down chip prices. The report clearly states that equipment will be prioritized for delivery to memory manufacturers like CXMT. CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies) went public on the A-share market and simultaneously listed on the STAR Market. It surged over 470% at opening, with a market cap exceeding 3 trillion RMB, breaking multiple records. This has been interpreted as a signal of the rise of China's DRAM power, sparking concerns in U.S. stocks about a "shift in the global supply landscape" (while the A-share memory sector rebounded instead). Simply put, the breakthrough in domestic lithography machines has shown the market China's accelerated "equipment + capacity" closed-loop system. Coupled with the financial impact of CXMT's listing, it has directly ignited worries about the future pricing power and market share of memory giants like Micron and SK Hynix. Short-term sentiment is dominating. Domestic DUV machines are expected to produce about 5 units this year, and around 20 units by 2027. Compared to ASML's annual production of over 100 units, it's still not enough to compete. The drop in U.S. stocks is purely a reaction to news, a shakeout. My previous judgment remains unchanged: the memory sector is just too hot right now and needs the market to cool it down. After big funds flow out, the AI bubble can still last for a while—it'll come back eventually. Let it drop hard. I currently don't hold any memory stocks. The best time to buy is when retail investors can't take it anymore.
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