Big thanks to Teacher Jiang! From the very beginning, I’ve always explained my reasons for shorting oil. Here’s a discussion with Teacher Jiang: 1. Iran is clinging tightly to the Strait of Hormuz, which is highly likely. This war has truly highlighted the strategic importance of Hormuz in global oil transportation. But precisely because of this, Iran’s blockade impacts almost everyone’s interests globally, including China. So my judgment is that oil prices won’t stay high for long, especially WTI hovering above $100 for an extended period. This would lead to global inflation rising—not just in the U.S., but worldwide. Europe, for example, has shifted from preparing to cut interest rates to considering hikes, largely due to inflation. While countries might tolerate Iran’s actions in the short term (since it’s tough to “negotiate” with a theocratic state), it’s not sustainable in the long run. 2. The U.S. hasn’t gone all out against Iran. Of course, pushing Iran too hard might not be in America’s best interest, given the nature of a theocratic regime. But as of now, the U.S.-Iran negotiations seem to have started with America’s blockade of the Iranian Gulf. Blocking the Gulf essentially blocks Iran’s wallet. Sure, Iran could retaliate, but I don’t think they’re at that point yet. The latest rumor is that a third country has proposed including Iran in some kind of Hormuz security guarantee organization, allowing them to earn a portion of Hormuz’s revenue. Naturally, Trump didn’t agree to this. Plus, a prolonged conflict doesn’t benefit the Republican Party, especially with midterm elections coming up. 3. Teacher Jiang’s point about “global strategic oil reserves running low” is spot on—I completely agree. And precisely because global reserves are limited, I believe oil prices won’t stay high for long. High oil prices don’t just affect one country; major global economies all have to bear the costs of inflation, interest rates, and slower economic growth. It’s hard to imagine this situation being allowed to persist indefinitely. Australia is a prime example. The Reserve Bank of Australia previously estimated that if Brent crude stays around $100, inflation could rise to 4.8%. If Brent hits $145, economic growth and employment would take an even bigger hit. Do you think Australia would just sit back and do nothing? I don’t buy it. PS: China actually has quite a lot of strategic reserves. Of course, these are just my personal views. I’m writing all this out to compare notes with everyone. But as things stand, I feel that even if oil prices hit $140, I’d still short it. That said, I have no idea if oil will actually reach $140, nor do I know when Trump might pull a TACO move. So I’ll keep shorting at high levels while managing my positions and risks. That’s my trading logic. It might not be right, but trading always involves a bit of stubbornness. Shorting oil might just be my stubborn streak