律动BlockBeats|Jul 23, 2026 13:52
[Elon Musk: The Risk of AI Catastrophe 'Is Not Zero,' But Humanity Shouldn't Hit the Brakes, Everyone Will Experience Unprecedented Prosperity]
According to monitoring by Beating, Musk systematically outlined his latest stance on AI during an interview with *The Economist*: Despite the risk of AI and robots spiraling out of control and causing disasters 'not being zero,' he still believes humanity should not halt its development. 'Sometimes I even think that even if there were a stop button, we probably shouldn't press it, because the most likely outcome is unprecedented prosperity for everyone.' Musk predicts that AI will surpass the collective intelligence of humanity in about five years, and unless there is a major disaster like global nuclear war, the world will enter an era of astonishing abundance, where people can have almost anything they can imagine.
When asked whether his earlier assessment of a '10% to 20% probability of catastrophic AI failure' still holds, Musk responded affirmatively and compared it to rockets: 'If a rocket had the same probability of exploding, I would still ride it, because assuming you can't do anything about it, the only thing you can do is minimize the probability of bad outcomes as much as possible.'
Musk's stance on AI has undergone significant evolution: In 2014, he likened developing AI to 'summoning the demon'; in 2018, he stated that 'AI is far more dangerous than nuclear weapons'; and as recently as 2025, he still believed there was a 10% to 20% chance of killer robots wiping out humanity. However, this year, he has noticeably shifted toward a utopian narrative—claiming in January that saving money for retirement would become meaningless, and predicting this month that AI and robots will make work optional and create a society with universal high income.
Musk emphasized that humanity is unlikely to continue controlling AI over the next decade: 'If you think you can control a superintelligent AI that is far smarter than yourself, that's just arrogance.' The real task is to ensure AI has the right values and cares about human welfare. Musk also revealed that he has suggested to Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis that leaders of globally leading AI companies should hold regular conference calls to jointly discuss AI safety and cybersecurity issues, believing that competitors can also supervise and balance each other.
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