At night, the oil price almost reached 100, and the 10-year US Treasury yield broke through 4.7%, and the US dollar index once again rose to 101. As we discussed on the evening of July 21st, 'In the short term, it's not a problem for several assets to follow their own logic, but in the medium term, there will definitely be problems.'. In terms of risk assets, Korean stocks have made gratifying progress in deleveraging, such as today's https://((x.com))/qinbank/status/2080253708320006429? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A discussed. Google's financial report confirms that AI demand continues to soar, while increased capital expenditures and negative free cash flow may still cause short-term concerns in the market. https://((x.com))/qinbufark/status/2080086114988421616? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A。 However, the deterioration of the macro environment will cause the market to face three types of pressure simultaneously in the short term: 1) The rise in oil prices has pushed up inflation expectations; 2) US bond yields rise, driving down stock valuations; 3) The strengthening of the US dollar is tightening global liquidity. To be honest, from a personal perspective, the market is not optimistic in the near future, which means that the deleveraging of risk assets has not been fully cleared, but macro level suppression is coming head-on. If Brent crude oil breaks through $100 and stabilizes at $90, the 10-year US Treasury yield stabilizes at 4.7%, and the US dollar continues to remain above $101, the big technology represented by the Nasdaq will become the place with the greatest pressure, and gold will also be forced to continue to be under pressure. The core key here, as we discussed before, is still oil prices. If oil prices do not fall, macroeconomic risk suppression is difficult to relieve. However, Trump is hard to say that he will turn right away in the short term due to the failure to open a new route in the Strait of Hormuz and the death of American soldiers. Perhaps he needs to feel the extreme pessimism and pressure of the market in order to back down. Just like before here https://((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/2076185072613597214? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A talked about: "Trump may not have accepted a cruel reality: it has been unable to restore the Strait of Hormuz to its pre war state, but also has to show toughness from time to time to appease domestic opposition voices and emotions for support and elections." "The United States has absolute air and long-range strike advantages, but Iran still retains the asymmetric ability to create global energy shocks. For Trump, either buy back the international navigation rights in the Straits in disguise (pay huge amounts of money to Iran to let Iran give up control), or completely destroy the Iranian regime and military strength (it seems that Trump has no intention of this step now)." Which one would it be, completely backing down and recognizing reality? Or is it a disguised buyout? Or take a tougher stance and further escalate in the hope of a military solution?