BTC rebound scenario starting from $57,800, projecting the highest target price (1) $67,500: First target (65% probability) This is the resistance level from 4 hours ago and the most concentrated area for short-term profit-taking. A lot of funds that entered near $66K will likely choose to exit here, making it the most immediate test right now. If there’s a breakout with strong volume, it opens up more upside potential; if it’s rejected and pulls back, then $66K will need to be retested as support. (2) $70,800: Second target (30% probability, see blue path in the chart below) If $67,500 is successfully broken, the next stop is around $70,800. The $68K-$70K range is a key area where previously trapped traders will likely exit. Once this selling pressure is absorbed, the rebound could extend further. (3) $72,800: Third target (15% probability, see yellow path in the chart below) This is the ceiling for this rebound. Near the 200-day moving average ($72,800), if BTC can truly touch and hold this level, it would structurally confirm the end of the bear market. However, I believe reaching this level would be more of a bull trap, signaling the end of the rebound, followed by another wide-ranging consolidation and a deeper dip to find the bottom. Currently, the price is about 6,000 points away from $72,800. Achieving this would require three conditions to align: sustained large ETF inflows, smooth progress on the CLARITY Act, and improved liquidity. Given that current trading volume is only 62% of the annual average, this is the most challenging scenario. Summary: $67,500 is the first hurdle right now. A breakout with strong volume points to $70,800; rejection leads to a retest of support. While $72,800 is a low-probability perfect scenario, as things stand, Bitcoin rebounding to $72,800 for a bull trap and then plunging again to find the bottom might actually be the ideal playbook for market manipulation.