"Before looking at the green box in the RSI, the red box should be examined first." Back in January, many analysts drew a trading range based on the Bitfinex Long Position data. Because the same pattern had repeatedly appeared throughout the bull market, a common conclusion was: "The Bitfinex Long Position has reached the upper boundary of its range, so Bitcoin price is likely to move higher again." At that time, I raised two questions. 1. What if this is no longer a bull market? 2. What if price follows the path represented by the red box instead? If that happens, then this data is no longer serving as a framework for making informed decisions. Instead, it simply becomes a tool for justifying decisions that failed to adapt. Now, six months have passed. The scenario that many dismissed has become reality. The question is: Were most investors actually able to respond? The same principle applies today. If the RSI is interpreted solely through the recurring pattern shown in the green box, then it is fundamentally no different from how the Bitfinex Long Position data was interpreted back in January. That is why the red box should be examined before focusing on the green box. technical structure has changed. on-chain data has evolved in ways that differ significantly from previous cycles. Even the macro relationship has changed. In 2022, U.S. equities and Bitcoin declined together. This time, market behavior has been fundamentally different. If the possibility represented by the red box is ignored once again while only the green box is emphasized, the interpretation will ultimately be no different from the way the Bitfinex Long Position data was interpreted earlier this year. Markets can repeat historical patterns but they are not obligated to do so. That is why every possibility must remain on the table when building a framework for market analysis. If the behavior represented by the red box has changed, then it is even more reasonable to assume that the behavior represented by the green box may change as well.(mignolet)