Wintermute: If Bitcoin falls below $75000, it may quickly explore the $70000 range According to BlockBeats, on May 19th, Wintermute released market views stating that the cryptocurrency market is under significant pressure this week as US inflation re heats up and interest rate expectations reverse. Bitcoin failed to break through its 200 day moving average during its first major macro shock, indicating that the previous upward trend was more driven by short covering rather than continuous inflow of new funds. The market environment has changed significantly. The US CPI growth has accelerated, core inflation is higher than expected, and real wages have turned negative. The yield of the US 10-year treasury bond bond has risen to 4.58%. At the same time, a new Fed chairman with a more hawkish stance will take office in three weeks. The market's pricing of the Federal Reserve's policy path has also rapidly changed, shifting from betting on interest rate cuts to worrying about another rate hike within just five trading days. The cross asset performance also reflects this change: Brent crude oil rose 8.6% this week, while Bitcoin and Ethereum fell 5.7% and 10.2% respectively. The concentration of funds flowing towards assets that drive inflation, and the performance of cryptocurrencies even weaker than the stock market during the decline, this relative weakness is considered worthy of vigilance. Although long-term structural benefits still exist, including the exchange's Bitcoin reserves remaining at low levels for many years, long-term holders continuing to increase their holdings, and the advancement of the US crypto regulatory law "CLARITY", institutional funds are more inclined to take profits from the rebound in the short term rather than continue to increase their positions. The market is currently focusing on the $76000 to $78000 range for Bitcoin. If this position can be maintained after Nvidia's financial report is released on Wednesday, market confidence may recover to some extent; But if it falls below $75000, and at the same time, fund rates fall and ETF funds continue to flow out, it may quickly explore the $70000 range. [Original link]