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wu fan
wu fan|4月 20, 2026 15:19
Iran is waiting for a message from the U.S. Specifically, for the U.S. military to lift the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. has actually figured out Iran's bottom line. If the U.S. military opens the strait, Iran will join the peace talks. Vance set out early because he believes the initiative is on his side. The whole world is waiting for Iran to announce its participation in the second round of peace talks, but Iran is actually waiting for the U.S. to lift the blockade first. Iran doesn’t want to treat the U.S. lifting the blockade as a bargaining chip, and the U.S. doesn’t want Iran to treat the blockade as a bargaining chip either. The U.S. really knows how to play the game. Originally, if one side made a concession, the other side should make one too. Now, the U.S. has taken a step forward first, so when they step back later, it will count as a concession. I think this is roughly why Vance didn’t get approval but still confidently set out. Because when the U.S. military opens the strait, it’s entirely up to the U.S. to decide. The U.S. has already seized the upper hand in the negotiations. Just speculation, not necessarily accurate.
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Timeline

5月 18, 16:31Iranian media reports about the lifting of oil sanctions are false.
5月 18, 15:57Announcement on Strategic Bitcoin Reserves is About to Be Released
5月 18, 15:55The Strait of Hormuz oil tanker traffic has returned to the wartime average level
5月 18, 14:56The EU warns that the Iran conflict will trigger a stagflation shock
5月 18, 14:03Larry Fink says a computing power futures asset class will emerge
5月 18, 13:08Iran proposes a multi-stage ceasefire agreement and nuclear program proposal
5月 18, 12:59Iran Revises Proposal to End War
5月 18, 11:51Iran bypasses the US dollar clearing system through Bitcoin
5月 18, 11:51Trump Agrees to Temporarily Lift Iran Oil Sanctions
5月 18, 05:20U.S. tech group discusses new AI model with G20 nations

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