Skyrocketing oil prices and bearish sentiment on BTC (increasingly seen as a risk asset) actually follow the same logic. As more footage of Iran’s small electric scooters gets exposed on social media, concerns about whether the U.S. will get bogged down in a war are also growing. Trump mentioned in early March that military operations would last 4-5 weeks. By early April 2026, if the Iranian regime doesn’t collapse as quickly as expected and international oil prices stay above $110, Trump might face immense TACO pressure. High oil prices are driving up inflation expectations, putting the Fed in a tough spot when setting interest rate policies—if they maintain high rates to combat inflation, it could further suppress an already weak job market; if they cut rates to stimulate the economy, it might lead to runaway inflation. A combination of the two resulting in “stagflation” would be even scarier. Of course, crypto is also closely tied to the Trump family’s interests. If BTC really drops to 45,000, their crypto investments would take a big hit as well. I’m inclined to think Trump will find a suitable opportunity soon to declare the operation a “complete success” and then quickly end this war.