常为希 |AI之道|3月 06, 2026 17:32
Uncovering the investment fig leaf: Technology is just the beginner, understanding the flow of funds and human nature is the real skill
Learning technology is better than understanding the market; Understanding the market is better than understanding oneself. Many people spend years studying K-lines MACD、 Bollinger Bands, it turns out that technology is just a ticket, what truly determines how far you can go is the flow of funds and human nature.
You study the K-line hard and stay up late to read financial reports, while entry-level defense stocks (consumer, finance, energy) directly cut by 14% or more. However, AI optical modules and defense have proven themselves to be "iron rice bowls" in just three months, without even needing to look at GDP. Ironically, AI can write code, perform analysis, draw graphs, and build clusters of thousands of cards, but its "old businesses" such as disk trading, stock trading, and lending are still struggling in the recession.
The truth is: technology is necessary, and without it, it is impossible; But more importantly, it is important to observe the flow of funds and understand the degree of panic and greed in the market.
Policies are useful, but pay attention to 'sell the news'. Major policies are certainly useful, but mundane news may just be smoke bombs. However, it should be noted that when policies are introduced, they may also be 'sell the news' - the realization of positive news is negative, don't be driven by emotions. There are more institutional thieves than you think: they don't need to lay off cyclical stocks, they just need to quietly invest money in AI infrastructure and space defense, two super necessities that "never hire, only expand", with lower costs, less trouble, and exponential returns.
Maintaining a certain distance from the market and waiting can sometimes be a good strategy. Doing only familiar trades can have benefits over time. Not everyone is suitable for professional stock trading. If you know it's not suitable, don't force yourself - this is not an industry where 'hard work leads to success', there are thresholds for talent, personality, and financial scale.
Stocks that only focus on technology won't last long, and stocks that only focus on fundamentals will waste time and cost. A true trading expert is someone who has mastered the operational thinking and underlying logic of others: why do institutions build positions at this price? Why do retail investors panic and sell? What is the true intention behind the policy? Be clear and remember the logic behind buying and selling a stock in the first place. Many people underestimate their ability to choose stocks and overestimate their ability to hold them - if they make the right choice but can't hold onto it, they end up losing profits and wasting their time.
According to one's own trading logic, only by entering the market multiple times with small amounts can one have the opportunity to seize the big market trend. Try not to clear your inventory with just one click, as the increased cost of buying it back later will make you anxious and unstable. Remember this lesson: small amount multiple times → cost sharing, stable mentality; One click clearance → buying back with high cost, anxious and unstable.
Be clear and remember: have a sense of awe towards the market, and often look at stocks that have fallen 90% to be alert to market risks. These stocks used to be "bull stocks" and had a glorious history. But the market never shows mercy to anyone - when you overestimate your ability to hold shares, it teaches you the first lesson.
Don't believe everything about the market, maintain an understanding of human nature. In fact, in this market, if there is really the ability to accurately analyze fundamental and macro aspects, who would still need to do technical analysis? Fundamental and macro requirements are at the highest level: comprehensive abilities in economics, politics, and finance, as well as extraordinary abilities to see through the essence of things. People with this ability, whether they do business or not, are like dragons and phoenixes among people.
Someone saw you driving a Volkswagen and asked why you didn't drive a Mercedes Benz, but he didn't want to? It's just not enough ability. The fundamental, hot topics, and macro requirements for people are too high. Institutions are all elite financial teams in the entire industry, produced without data research, and the results are sometimes good and sometimes bad, as well as probabilistic.
The perfect transaction is definitely: being particularly familiar with the macro economy, having a clear logic of various price increases, and finally taking a brief look at the candlestick. But the former is too difficult, with significant differences in everyone's level, completely incomparable; The latter is relatively fair, and everyone still has some hope.
Institutions are all elite teams, and the results of non data research are sometimes good and sometimes bad - because this is a matter of probability. The perfect trading formula: being particularly familiar with the macro economy (too difficult), having a clear logic of various price increases (too difficult), and finally taking a brief look at the K-line (relatively easy). The truth is: the former is too difficult, and everyone's level of difference is too great to compare; The latter is relatively fair, and everyone still has some hope.
So, don't always think 'I need to see through the fundamentals and grasp the big trends' - first ask yourself: Do you really have the ability to understand economic cycles, political games, and financial logic? If the answer is negative, then honestly conduct technical analysis, enter the market multiple times with small amounts, maintain a sense of awe, and remember your buying and selling logic. This is the way ordinary people can go further in this market.
The true hard power is never the greenness of the candlestick, but the ruthlessness of the underlying logic. Save this content and open it the next time you can't hold onto the stock - you will find that a novice becomes an experienced player, and only one truth needs to be torn apart.
Share To
Timeline
HotFlash
APP
X
Telegram
CopyLink